The Role of Internal Variability in ITCZ Changes Over the Last Millennium
The Role of Internal Variability in ITCZ Changes Over the Last Millennium
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DOI：
10.1029/2021gl096487
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发表时间：
2022-02
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
P. J. Roldán‐Gómez;J. González-Rouco;C. Melo-Aguilar;J. Smerdon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. J. Roldán‐Gómez;J. González-Rouco;C. Melo-Aguilar;J. Smerdon
热带水文气候受热带辐合带（ITCZ）的位置和强度调制。重建和模拟的最后一个千年（LM）建议ITCZ的纬度变化，影响水文气候在世界上的大区域。这些ITCZ的变化通常与外部辐射强迫有关，但对社区地球系统模式-上一个千年Enhancement（CESM-LME）的分析表明，内部变率在数十年和百年时间尺度上有重要贡献。与外部强迫驱动的变化相反，外部强迫驱动的变化与北方和南半球之间的不对称变暖有关，CESM-LME内部变率的贡献与东太平洋的冷却和变暖有关。虽然外部强迫仍然是大西洋海盆ITCZ变化的主要驱动力，但CESM-LME内部变率的贡献超过了太平洋和印度洋海盆的强迫。
Tropical hydroclimate is modulated by the position and intensity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Reconstructions and simulations of the Last Millennium (LM) suggest latitudinal variations of the ITCZ that impact the hydroclimate over large regions of the world. These ITCZ shifts have been generally linked to external radiative forcing, but analyses of the Community Earth System Model – Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM‐LME) demonstrate a significant contribution of internal variability over multidecadal and centennial timescales. In contrast to changes driven by external forcing, which are associated with an asymmetric warming between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, the contribution of internal variability in the CESM‐LME is associated with cooling and warming of the eastern Pacific. While external forcing remains the main driver of ITCZ changes in the Atlantic basin, the contribution of internal variability in the CESM‐LME exceeds that of the forcing for the Pacific and Indian Ocean basins.