Modelling drivers of Brazilian agricultural change in a telecoupled world
Modelling drivers of Brazilian agricultural change in a telecoupled world
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105024
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发表时间：
2021-03-05
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Batistella, Mateus
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Millington, James D. A.;Katerinchuk, Valeri;Batistella, Mateus
世纪，全球对农产品的需求不断增长，推动了巴西各地的土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）和农业生产。需要建模工具来帮助理解由于这些原因可能产生的结果的范围？远程耦合？考虑到未来政治、经济和环境的不确定性，全球与地方的关系。在这里，我们提出了CRAFTY-Brazil，这是一个LUCC模型，代表了多种农业商品的生产，该模型在空间上是明确的（例如，土地使用权）和时间上的偶然性（例如，农业债务）过程的重要性，在我们近四百万平方公里的巴西研究区。我们校准了2001年的模型校准？2018年，并运行有关商品需求，农业产量，气候变化和2019年政策决定的测试和情景？2035.结果表明，更大的信心，在模拟的时间序列比空间分配。我们讨论了我们的方法可能是最好的理解是基于机构，而不是代理，并突出问题更多和更少适合这种方法。
Increasing global demand for agricultural commodities has driven local land use/cover change (LUCC) and agricultural production across Brazil during the 21st century. Modelling tools are needed to help understand the range of possible outcomes due to these ?telecoupled? global-to-local relationships, given future political, economic and environmental uncertainties. Here, we present CRAFTY-Brazil, a LUCC model representing production of multiple agricultural commodities that accounts for spatially explicit (e.g., land access) and temporally contingent (e.g., agricultural debt) processes of importance across our nearly four million km2 Brazilian study area. We calibrate the model calibration for 2001?2018, and run tests and scenarios about commodity demand, agricultural yields, climate change, and policy decisions for 2019?2035. Results indicate greater confidence in modelled time-series than spatial allocation. We discuss how our approach might be best understood to be agency-based, rather than agent-based, and highlight questions more and less appropriate for this approach.