Generalizing the permanent-income hypothesis: Revisiting Friedman's conjecture on consumption
Generalizing the permanent-income hypothesis: Revisiting Friedman's conjecture on consumption
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.04.005
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发表时间：
2006-05-01
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Wang, N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang, N
弗里德曼对消费文学的贡献远远超出了开创性的永久收入假说。他推测，金融财富的边际消费倾向应该大于“人类财富”，即未来劳动收入的当前贴现值。我提出了一个明确解决的模型，通过指定收入变化的条件方差随其水平而增加，来传递这一广泛注意的消费属性。实现更高的收入不仅意味着更高的人类财富水平。但也预示着未来劳动收入的风险更大，从而导致更高的预防性储蓄。从而产生了弗里德曼的猜想。根据收入风险适当调整人类财富，我表明弗里德曼的猜想可以被表述为“广义的”永久收入假设。我进一步证明，弗里德曼的猜想抓住了随机预防性储蓄的一阶效应。最后，我提出了最优储蓄规则的自然分解，以形式化持有财富的各种动机，正如Friedman， M.， 1957所强调的那样。消费函数理论。普林斯顿大学出版社，普林斯顿。(c) 2006 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
Friedman's contribution to the consumption literature goes well beyond the seminal permanent-income hypothesis. He conjectured that the marginal propensity to consume out of financial wealth shall be larger than out of "human wealth", the present discounted value of future labor income. I present an explicitly solved model to deliver this widely noted consumption property by specifying that the conditional variance of changes in income increases with its level. A larger realization of income not only implies a higher level of human wealth. but also signals a riskier stream Of future labor income, inducing a higher precautionary saving. and thus giving rise to Friedman's conjecture. Appropriately adjusting human wealth for income risk, I show that Friedman's conjecture may be formulated as a "generalized" permanent income hypothesis. I further show that Friedman's conjecture captures the first-order effect of stochastic Precautionary savings. Finally, I propose a natural decomposition of the optimal saving rule to formalize various motives for holding wealth as emphasized in [Friedman, M., 1957. A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton University Press, Princeton]. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.