Ensemble climate predictions using climate models and observational constraints
Ensemble climate predictions using climate models and observational constraints
复制标题
使用气候模型和观测限制进行气候预测
DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2007.2075
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
C. Forest
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Stott;C. Forest
根据对过去气候变化的观察，描述了两种不同的方法来限制气候预测。第一种是从计算效率高的模型中使用大集合模拟，第二种是使用最先进的海洋-大气耦合大气环流模型的小集合。描述了每种方法，并讨论了每种方法的优点。比较起来，这两种方法在未来气温变化的范围上是一致的。使用独立技术获得的这些结果的一致性表明，过去观察到的气候变化对未来可能发生的气候变化提供了强有力的约束。这种概率预测对于寻求适应未来变化的社区是有用的，并为制定减缓气候变化的战略提供了重要信息。
Two different approaches are described for constraining climate predictions based on observations of past climate change. The first uses large ensembles of simulations from computationally efficient models and the second uses small ensembles from state-of-the-art coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. Each approach is described and the advantages of each are discussed. When compared, the two approaches are shown to give consistent ranges for future temperature changes. The consistency of these results, when obtained using independent techniques, demonstrates that past observed climate changes provide robust constraints on probable future climate changes. Such probabilistic predictions are useful for communities seeking to adapt to future change as well as providing important information for devising strategies for mitigating climate change.