On the global limits of bioenergy and land use for climate change mitigation
On the global limits of bioenergy and land use for climate change mitigation
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DOI：
10.1111/gcbb.12456
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发表时间：
2017-12-01
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
Rosillo-Calle, Frank
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Strapasson, Alexandre;Woods, Jeremy;Rosillo-Calle, Frank
在能源、农业和林业领域，生产生物质作为能源已成为土地使用变化的一个有争议的驱动因素。我们提出了一种新的，简单的方法，探索潜在的全球可持续发展的限制，随着时间的推移，生物能源的能源供应和气候变化的缓解使用复杂的系统方法评估土地利用动态。在不同的土地利用未来、食物饮食模式和气候变化减缓努力的背景下，对到2050年全球可提供70 EJ年（-1）至360 EJ年（-1）的初级生物量进行了模拟。我们的模拟还显示了到2050年农业，林业和其他土地利用的潜在温室气体排放范围，不仅包括地上生物量相关的排放，还包括土壤碳的变化，从高达24 GtCO（2）eq年（-1）到低至负21 GtCO（2）eq年（-1），这将是负排放的重要来源。基于建模模拟，讨论提供了关于生物能源作为更广泛的综合系统的一部分的新见解。虽然生物能源供应的规模存在可持续性限制，但它们随着时间的推移而不断变化，对世界各地部署的土地管理方案作出反应。
Across energy, agricultural and forestry landscapes, the production of biomass for energy has emerged as a controversial driver of land-use change. We present a novel, simple methodology, to probe the potential global sustainability limits of bioenergy over time for energy provision and climate change mitigation using a complex-systems approach for assessing land-use dynamics. Primary biomass that could provide between 70EJyear(-1) and 360EJyear(-1), globally, by 2050 was simulated in the context of different land-use futures, food diet patterns and climate change mitigation efforts. Our simulations also show ranges of potential greenhouse gas emissions for agriculture, forestry and other land uses by 2050, including not only above-ground biomass-related emissions, but also from changes in soil carbon, from as high as 24 GtCO(2)eq year(-1) to as low as minus 21 GtCO(2)eq year(-1), which would represent a significant source of negative emissions. Based on the modelling simulations, the discussions offer novel insights about bioenergy as part of a broader integrated system. Whilst there are sustainability limits to the scale of bioenergy provision, they are dynamic over time, being responsive to land management options deployed worldwide.