Household air pollution in Nairobi's slums: A long-term policy evaluation using participatory system dynamics
Household air pollution in Nairobi's slums: A long-term policy evaluation using participatory system dynamics
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.430
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发表时间：
2019-04-10
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Davies, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dianati, K.;Zimmermann, N.;Davies, M.
内罗毕58%的人口居住在条件极其恶劣的非正规住区。家庭空气污染是这些定居点过早死亡和疾病的主要原因之一。没有针对家庭空气污染的监管框架和政府预算，人道主义组织在这个问题上基本上仍然不关注和不活跃。本文件的目的是评估潜在的室内空气相关政策的有效性，与各利益攸关方一起确定，在降低内罗毕的贫民窟的家庭空气污染。在此背景下，我们采用了一种新的方法，在内罗毕的一系列利益相关者研讨会中使用参与式系统动力学，绘制和模拟家庭空气污染的复杂动态，并制定可能的政策选择。讲习班的参加者包括社区成员、地方和国家决策者、半官方机构、非政府组织和学术界的代表。模拟模型表明，在一切照旧的情况下，目前缓慢改善室内空气质量的趋势将很快停止。如果我们的目标是继续大幅降低家庭PM2.5水平，就需要大幅加快清洁炉灶的使用。我们确定了将投资转向家庭空气质量监测和健康影响评估研究的潜在高影响，从而提高了公众和政府对这一问题及其健康后果的认识和关注。这种投资由于其自我强化的性质，可以带来高投资回报，但由于所涉及的时间滞后，可能会产生"先坏后好"的结果。我们还讨论了在类似的多利益相关者背景下的参与过程的有用性。这项工作对这种环境具有重要意义，它促进了我们对减少家庭空气污染的高级别政策选择的有效性的理解。它提出了一个案例，参与性系统动态的有用性，这样复杂的，多利益相关者，环境问题。(C)2019年，任作家。由爱思唯尔公司出版
58% of Nairobi's population live in informal settlements in extremely poor conditions. Household air pollution is one of the leading causes of premature death and disease in these settlements. Regulatory frameworks and government budgets for household air pollution do not exist and humanitarian organisations remain largely inattentive and inactive on this issue. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of potential indoor-air related policies, as identified together with various stakeholders, in lowering household air pollution in Nairobi's slums. Applying a novel approach in this context, we used participatory system dynamics within a series of stakeholder workshops in Nairobi, to map and model the complex dynamics surrounding household air pollution and draw up possible policy options. Workshop participants included community members, local and national policy-makers, representatives from parastatals, NGOs and academics. Simulation modelling demonstrates that under business-as-usual, the current trend of slowly improving indoor air quality will soon come to a halt. If we aim to continue to substantially reduce household PM2.5 levels, a drastic acceleration in the uptake of clean stoves is needed. We identified the potentially high impact of redirecting investment towards household air quality monitoring and health impact assessment studies, therefore raising the public's and the government's awareness and concern about this issue and its health consequences. Such investments, due to their self-reinforcing nature, can entail high returns on investment, but are likely to give 'worse-before-better' results due to the time lags involved. We also discuss the usefulness of the participatory process within similar multi-stakeholder contexts. With important implications for such settings this work advances our understanding of the efficacy of high-level policy options for reducing household air pollution. It makes a case for the usefulness of participatory system dynamics for such complex, multi-stakeholder, environmental issues. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.