Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change.
Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1611576114
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发表时间：
2017-03-14
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Winkel LH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jones GD;Droz B;Greve P;Gottschalk P;Poffet D;McGrath SP;Seneviratne SI;Smith P;Winkel LH
微量元素硒对人体健康至关重要，且在饮食中的浓度范围要求很窄。据估计，全球多达10亿人硒摄入不足。饮食中硒的可获取性受土壤 - 植物相互作用的控制，但决定其在大尺度土壤中分布的机制在很大程度上尚不清楚。利用数据挖掘技术，我们对近期（1980 - 1999年）的分布进行了建模，并确定气候 - 土壤相互作用是主要的控制因素。此外，利用适度的气候变化预测，我们预测未来（2080 - 2099年）58%的建模区域土壤硒会流失（平均流失率 = 8.4%）。农田的预测流失率甚至更高，66%的农田预计会流失8.7%的硒。这些流失可能会增加全球硒缺乏症的患病率。
包括必需微量元素在内的微量营养素缺乏症影响着全球多达30亿人。微量元素在饮食中的可获取性在很大程度上取决于其在土壤中的浓度。到目前为止，决定土壤浓度的机制是在小规模研究中评估的，这些研究将土壤的物理化学性质确定为控制变量。然而，微量元素在全球的浓度以及控制其分布的因素实际上是未知的。我们利用33241个土壤数据点对硒（Se）近期（1980 - 1999年）的全球分布进行了建模，硒是人体必需的微量元素。据估计，全球多达七分之一的人饮食中硒摄入量较低。与小规模研究相反，土壤硒浓度主要受气候 - 土壤相互作用的影响。利用2080 - 2099年的适度气候变化情景，我们预测气候和土壤有机碳含量的变化将导致土壤硒浓度总体下降，特别是在农业地区；这些下降可能会增加硒缺乏症的患病率。气候 - 土壤相互作用对硒分布的重要性表明，具有类似留存机制的其他微量元素也会受到气候变化的类似影响。
The trace element selenium is essential for human health and is required in a narrow dietary concentration range. Insufficient selenium intake has been estimated to affect up to 1 billion people worldwide. Dietary selenium availability is controlled by soil–plant interactions, but the mechanisms governing its broad-scale soil distributions are largely unknown. Using data-mining techniques, we modeled recent (1980–1999) distributions and identified climate–soil interactions as main controlling factors. Furthermore, using moderate climate change projections, we predicted future (2080–2099) soil selenium losses from 58% of modeled areas (mean loss = 8.4%). Predicted losses from croplands were even higher, with 66% of croplands predicted to lose 8.7% selenium. These losses could increase the worldwide prevalence of selenium deficiency. Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980–1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate–soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080–2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate–soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change.