Projected West Antarctic Ocean Warming Caused by an Expansion of the Ross Gyre
Projected West Antarctic Ocean Warming Caused by an Expansion of the Ross Gyre
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DOI：
10.1029/2023gl102978
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发表时间：
2023-03
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
F. Gómez-Valdivia;P. Holland;Antony Siahaan;P. Dutrieux;E. Young
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Gómez-Valdivia;P. Holland;Antony Siahaan;P. Dutrieux;E. Young
我们使用英国地球系统模式模拟从耦合模式相互比较项目6分析罗斯环流（RG）动态在历史上1850-2014年期间和两个对比的未来气候变化情景。建模的RG是相对稳定的，与观测的程度和强度一致。预测显示，在2040年代开始，环流向东扩展到阿蒙森-别林斯高晋海。相关的气旋性海洋环流增强了温暖的绕极深水向内陆区域陆架的陆上输送，这是一种使当地次表层陆架温度增加1.2°C的制度变化，并且与未来的强迫情景无关。RG膨胀是由区域海洋表面应力旋度加剧与人为海冰损失。如果在现实中实现，这种变暖将强烈影响南极西部冰盖未来的稳定性。
We use United Kingdom Earth System Model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 to analyze the Ross Gyre (RG) dynamics during the historical 1850–2014 period and under two contrasting future climate‐change scenarios. The modeled RG is relatively stable, with an extent and strength that agree with observations. The projections exhibit an eastward gyre expansion into the Amundsen‐Bellingshausen Seas that starts during the 2040s. The associated cyclonic ocean circulation enhances the onshore transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water into the inner regional shelf, a regime change that increases the local subsurface shelf temperatures by up to 1.2°C and is independent of future forcing scenario. The RG expansion is generated by a regional ocean surface stress curl intensification associated with anthropogenic sea ice loss. If realised in reality, such a warming would strongly influence the future stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.