ESTIMATION OF HUMAN-TUMOR GROWTH-RATE FROM DISTRIBUTION OF TUMOR SIZE AT DETECTION
ESTIMATION OF HUMAN-TUMOR GROWTH-RATE FROM DISTRIBUTION OF TUMOR SIZE AT DETECTION
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DOI：
10.1093/jnci/72.1.31
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发表时间：
1984-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
MONTAGUE, ED
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
BROWN, BW;ATKINSON, EN;MONTAGUE, ED
提出了基于两个假设从检测时的体积分布估计肿瘤的生长曲线（直到未知的时间比例因子）的方法：1）存在共同生长曲线和2）在一段时间内检测肿瘤的概率与肿瘤体积成比例的假设。这些方法可以适应个体之间在生长曲线遍历速度上的变化。该方法适用于检测大量乳腺癌时的肿瘤体积。最简单、充分的描述是肿瘤倍增时间的指数增长，个体间差异很大。数据与有界增长（Gompertzian或logistic形式）以及指数增长一致。然而，没有证据表明增长的界限在数据范围内。体积分布的形状并不能对这样一个界限产生有效的下限。
Methods are presented for estimating the growth curve of a tumor (up to an unknown scale factor of time) from the distribution of volumes at detection on the basis of two assumptions: 1 ) the existence of a common growth curve and 2) the assumption that the probability of detecting a tumor in a period of time is proportional to the tumor volume. These methods can accommodate variation between individuals in speed of traversal of the growth curve. The methods are applied to volumes of tumor at detection of a large series of breast cancers. The simplest, adequate description is exponential growth with great individual-to-individual variation in tumor doubling time. The data are consistent with bounded growth (Gompertzian or logistic form) as well as exponential growth. However, there is no evidence that the bound on growth is within the range of the data. The shape of the distribution of volumes does not yield an effective lower limit on such a bound.