A Simulation Optimization Approach to Long-Term Care Capacity Planning
A Simulation Optimization Approach to Long-Term Care Capacity Planning
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DOI：
10.1287/opre.1110.1026
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发表时间：
2012-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yue Zhang-;M. Puterman;Matthew Nelson;D. Atkins
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文献类型：
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作者：
Yue Zhang-;M. Puterman;Matthew Nelson;D. Atkins
本文描述了在多年规划范围内设定长期护理能力水平以实现目标等待时间服务水平的方法。我们的方法集成了人口统计和生存分析，离散事件模拟和优化。在此基础上，我们开发了一个决策支持系统用于实践。我们通过两个案例研究来说明这种方法：一个是针对加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省的一个地区卫生当局，另一个是针对一家长期护理机构。我们还将我们的方法与实践中使用的固定比率方法以及呼叫中心文献中开发的SIPP（平稳、独立、逐期）和MOL（修改提供负载）方法进行了比较。我们的结果表明，我们的方法是可取的。固定比率方法缺乏严格的基础，SIPP和MOL方法主要由于服务时间长而性能不可靠。最后，我们提出了政策建议。
This paper describes a methodology for setting long-term care capacity levels over a multiyear planning horizon to achieve target wait time service levels. Our approach integrates demographic and survival analysis, discrete event simulation, and optimization. Based on this methodology, we developed a decision support system for use in practice. We illustrate this approach through two case studies: one for a regional health authority in British Columbia, Canada, and the other for a long-term care facility. We also compare our approach to the fixed ratio approach used in practice and the SIPP (stationary, independent, period by period) and MOL (modified offered load) approaches developed in the call center literature. Our results suggest that our approach is preferable. The fixed ratio approach lacks a rigorous foundation, and the SIPP and MOL approaches do not perform reliably mainly because of long service times. We conclude the paper with policy recommendations.