Regional energy demand in Japan: dynamic shift-share analysis
Regional energy demand in Japan: dynamic shift-share analysis
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DOI：
10.1186/s13705-016-0076-x
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发表时间：
2016-04-19
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Otsuka, Akihiro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Otsuka, Akihiro
背景：为了准确地调查日本能源需求的未来趋势，有必要澄清决定各地区能源需求波动的因素。具体而言，有必要澄清区域间能源需求波动是由构成因素（即能源用户的差异）引起的，还是由区域特有因素引起的。方法：采用动态偏移-份额分析方法，分析能源需求变化的决定因素，阐明影响日本区域能源需求波动的因素。结果：能源需求波动可以用成分效应和区域效应来解释。在构成效应方面，以居住和商业活动为主的区域能源需求增长最为显著。然而，在专门从事制造业活动的地区，能源需求并没有增加。就区域效应而言，大城市区域的能源需求受到限制，因为通过节能提高了能源强度。结论：研究结果表明，在一个地区，工业和民间部门的混合活动可能会使能源需求变化的波动趋于平缓。这一发现表明，要缓和区域能源需求的变化，重要的是要实现各区域产业结构的多样化。
Background: To investigate the future trends of energy demand in Japan accurately, it is necessary to clarify the factors that determine the fluctuations in energy demands across regions. Specifically, it is necessary to clarify whether the energy demand fluctuations across regions arise from compositional factors, that is, differences in energy users, or from regionally unique factors.Methods: This study analyzes the determinants of energy demand change to clarify the factors that have affected the fluctuations in regional energy demands in Japan, using dynamic shift-share analysis.Results: The results show that the energy demand fluctuations can be explained by compositional effects and regional effects. With regard to the compositional effects, the energy demand growth increased most remarkably in the regions that specialize in residential and commercial activities. However, energy demand did not increase in the regions that specialize in manufacturing activities. With respect to the regional effects, there were constraints on energy demand in big-city regions because of the improved energy intensity achieved through energy conservation.Conclusions: The results imply that having a mixture of industry and civil sector activities in a region potentially flattens out the fluctuations in energy demand changes. This finding suggests that when moderating the change of regional energy demand, it is important to diversify the industrial structure in each region.