Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland
Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland
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DOI：
10.3934/mbe.2007.4.457
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发表时间：
2007-07-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Hyman, James M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chowell, Gerardo;Ammon, Catherine E.;Hyman, James M.
在流感大流行开始时，早期估计原发性流感病例产生的继发性病例数（再现数，R）及其相关的不确定性有助于确定控制所需干预措施的强度。使用房室模型和1918年瑞士日内瓦西班牙流感大流行前两波的医院通知数据，我们估计了大流行波早期的繁殖数量。对于春季和秋季大流行波，我们估计从初始流行阶段（包括相应波的前10个流行日）开始的繁殖数分别为1.57（95%CI：1.45，1.70）和3.10（2.81，3.39）。我们的点估计的方差估计的R通过一个参数的自助计算。我们将这些估计值与使用不同观察窗口获得的其他估计值进行比较，以了解如何早期进入流行病的繁殖数量可以估计。
At the outset of an influenza pandemic, early estimates of the number of secondary cases generated by a primary influenza case (reproduction number, R) and its associated uncertainty can help determine the intensity of interventions necessary for control. Using a compartmental model and hospital notification data of the first two waves of the Spanish flu pandemic in Geneva, Switzerland in 1918, we estimate the reproduction number from the early phase of the pandemic waves. For the spring and fall pandemic waves, we estimate reproduction numbers of 1.57 (95% Cl: 1.45, 1.70) and 3.10 (2.81, 3.39), respectively, from the initial epidemic phase comprising the first 10 epidemic days of the corresponding wave. Estimates of the variance of our point estimates of R were computed via a parametric bootstrap. We compare these estimates with others obtained using different observation windows to provide insight into how early into an epidemic the reproduction number can be estimated.