The Impact of Globalization on Food and Agriculture: The Case of the Diet Convergence
The Impact of Globalization on Food and Agriculture: The Case of the Diet Convergence
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DOI：
10.1177/1070496513516467
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发表时间：
2014-03-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Souty, Francois
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brunelle, Thierry;Dumas, Patrice;Souty, Francois
全球化推动了发展中国家和发达国家饮食趋同的进程，这挑战了对未来食品消费模式的预测。为了解决这个问题，本文的目的是绘制未来可能的饮食变化范围，并使用 Nexus 土地利用模型探讨其对农业的影响。该模型基于计算不同类型食物热量的架构，计算全球范围内农作物和畜牧业的农业集约化。通过考虑建立在有关饮食趋同的不同假设之上的四种情景，本文阐明了饮食变化作为农业和土地利用紧张局势驱动因素的关键作用，并展示了与饮食趋同过程相关的不确定性，以进行粮食和农业的远见活动。最后，通过测试我们的结果对生物燃料生产、森林砍伐、潜在作物产量和养分利用效率假设的敏感性，探讨了粮食生产与其他土地利用模式之间的相互作用。
Globalization drives a process of diet convergence among developing and developed countries that challenges the predictions about future patterns of food consumption. To address this issue, the objective of this article is to map the range of the possible future diet changes and to explore their impact on agriculture using the Nexus Land-Use model. This model computes agricultural intensification in the crop and livestock sectors at the global scale, based on an architecture accounting for the different types of food calories. By considering four scenarios built on distinct assumptions regarding diet convergence, this article sheds light on the pivotal role of diet changes as drivers of tensions on agriculture and land use and shows the uncertainty associated with processes of diet convergence for foresight exercises on food and agriculture. Finally, the interactions between food production and the other land-use patterns are explored by testing the sensitivity of our results to assumptions regarding biofuel production, deforestation, potential crop yields, and nutrient-use efficiency.