BAYESIAN TECHNIQUES FOR COMPARING TIME-DEPENDENT GRMHD SIMULATIONS TO VARIABLE EVENT HORIZON TELESCOPE OBSERVATIONS
BAYESIAN TECHNIQUES FOR COMPARING TIME-DEPENDENT GRMHD SIMULATIONS TO VARIABLE EVENT HORIZON TELESCOPE OBSERVATIONS
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DOI：
10.3847/0004-637x/832/2/156
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发表时间：
2016-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Junhan Kim;D. Marrone;Chi-kwan Chan;L. Medeiros;F. Özel;D. Psaltis
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作者：
Junhan Kim;D. Marrone;Chi-kwan Chan;L. Medeiros;F. Özel;D. Psaltis
事件视界望远镜（EHT）是一种毫米波长甚长基线干涉测量（VLBI）实验，能够以视界尺度分辨率观测黑洞。早期的观测揭示了银河系中心黑洞人马座A*（Sgr A*）中可变的视界尺度发射。将这些观测结果与随时间变化的广义相对论磁流体动力学（GRMHD）模拟进行比较，需要明确考虑数据和模型变化的统计工具。在这里，我们开发了一种贝叶斯方法来比较时间分辨的模拟图像变量VLBI数据，以推断模型参数和进行模型比较。我们使用基于GRMHD模拟的模拟EHT数据来探索这种贝叶斯方法的鲁棒性，并将其与不考虑变异性影响的方法进行对比。我们发现，与时间无关的模型导致偏移值的推断参数与人为减少的不确定性。此外，忽略数据和模型的可变性往往会导致错误的模型选择。最后，我们将我们的方法应用到早期的EHT数据Sgr A*。
The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a millimeter-wavelength, very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) experiment that is capable of observing black holes with horizon-scale resolution. Early observations have revealed variable horizon-scale emission in the Galactic Center black hole, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*). Comparing such observations to time-dependent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations requires statistical tools that explicitly consider the variability in both the data and the models. We develop here a Bayesian method to compare time-resolved simulation images to variable VLBI data, in order to infer model parameters and perform model comparisons. We use mock EHT data based on GRMHD simulations to explore the robustness of this Bayesian method and contrast it to approaches that do not consider the effects of variability. We find that time-independent models lead to offset values of the inferred parameters with artificially reduced uncertainties. Moreover, neglecting the variability in the data and the models often leads to erroneous model selections. We finally apply our method to the early EHT data on Sgr A*.