Financing carbon lock-in in developing countries: Bilateral financing for power generation technologies from China, Japan, and the United States
Financing carbon lock-in in developing countries: Bilateral financing for power generation technologies from China, Japan, and the United States
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117318
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发表时间：
2021-07-14
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Mauzerall, Denise L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Xu;Li, Zhongshu;Mauzerall, Denise L.
电力部门脱碳需要从根本上将全球金融从化石燃料基础设施转向低碳技术。双边融资在全球能源向非化石能源过渡中发挥着重要作用，但对其影响的理解有限。本文首次比较了美国、中国和日本这三个最大经济体的海外融资对海外发电发展的影响，并评估了相关的长期CO2排放量。通过分析日本和美国的国家开发金融机构的新闻稿和年度报告，并跟踪发电厂层面的外国直接投资，构建了2000年至2018年期间日本和美国海外发电融资的新数据集。将这些新数据与先前开发的中国数据集进行综合，我们发现，在研究期间，这三个国家的海外融资集中在化石燃料发电技术上。来自中国、日本和美国的融资承诺分别促进了101吉瓦、95吉瓦和47吉瓦的海外电力容量增加。大部分促进的产能增加是化石燃料发电厂（中国为64%，日本为87%，美国为66%）。每个国家对非水力可再生能源发电的贡献都不到其促进能力增加的15%。我们估计，到2018年，这三个国家的海外化石燃料发电融资将在2060年锁定24 Gt的二氧化碳排放量。如果要实现气候目标，以可再生技术融资取代双边化石燃料融资至关重要。
Power sector decarbonization requires a fundamental redirection of global finance from fossil fuel infrastructure towards low carbon technologies. Bilateral finance plays an important role in the global energy transition to non -fossil energy, but an understanding of its impact is limited. Here, for the first time, we compare the influence of overseas finance from the three largest economies - United States, China, and Japan - on power generation development beyond their borders and evaluate the associated long-term CO2 emissions. We construct a new dataset of Japanese and U.S. overseas power generation finance between 2000 and 2018 by analyzing their national development finance institutions' press releases and annual reports and tracking their foreign direct investment at the power plant level. Synthesizing this new data with previously developed datasets for China, we find that the three countries' overseas financing concentrated in fossil fuel power technologies over the studied period. Financing commitments from China, Japan, and the United States facilitated 101 GW, 95 GW, and 47 GW overseas power capacity additions, respectively. The majority of facilitated capacity additions are fossil fuel plants (64% for China, 87% for Japan, and 66% for the United States). Each of the countries' contributions to non-hydro renewable generation was less than 15% of their facilitated capacity additions. Together, we estimate that overseas fossil fuel power financing through 2018 from these three countries will lock in 24 Gt CO2 emis-sions by 2060. If climate targets are to be met, replacing bilateral fossil fuel financing with financing of renewable technologies is crucial.