Developing the next-generation climate system models: challenges and achievements
Developing the next-generation climate system models: challenges and achievements
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DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2008.0207
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发表时间：
2009-03-13
期刊：
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Weller, Hilary
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Slingo, Julia;Bates, Kevin;Weller, Hilary
尽管气候模型在过去几十年中在准确性和效率方面有所提高，但现在看来，这些渐进式的改进可能正在放缓。随着千万亿次/千万亿次计算的大规模并行化，我们的传统代码不再适用，即使我们现在开始使用更高的分辨率，这些模型也不能代表气候系统的多尺度性质。本文认为，现在可能是时候重新考虑使用自适应网格细化天气和气候预报，以实现良好的缩放和代表性的大气和海洋中的广泛的空间尺度。此外，将生物体和人类反应纳入气候系统模型的挑战才刚刚开始得到解决。我们还没有一个明确的框架来处理这个问题，但它很可能涵盖如此大量的不同规模和过程，以至于可能必须考虑完全不同的方法。多尺度建模和千万亿次计算的挑战提供了一个机会，考虑一个新的方法来数值模拟的气候（或地球）系统，利用计算。流体动力学在其他领域的发展，并带来了如何纳入地球系统过程的新观点。本文回顾了当前气候（以及地球）系统建模中的一些问题，并提出了是否需要新一代模型来解决这些问题的问题。
Although climate models have been improving in accuracy and efficiency over the past few decades, it now seems that these incremental improvements may be slowing. As tera/petascale computing becomes massively parallel, our legacy codes are less suitable, and even with the increased resolution that we are now beginning to use, these models cannot represent the multiscale nature of the climate system. This paper argues that it may be time to reconsider the use of adaptive mesh refinement for weather and climate forecasting in order to achieve good scaling and representation of the wide range of spatial scales in the atmosphere and ocean. Furthermore, the challenge of introducing living organisms and human responses into climate system models is only just beginning to be tackled. We do not yet have a clear framework in which to approach the problem, but it is likely to cover such a huge number of different scales and processes that radically different methods may have to be considered. The challenges of multiscale modelling and petascale computing provide an opportunity to consider a fresh approach to numerical modelling of the climate (or Earth) system, which takes advantage of the computational. uid dynamics developments in other fields and brings new perspectives on how to incorporate Earth system processes. This paper reviews some of the current issues in climate (and, by implication, Earth) system modelling, and asks the question whether a new generation of models is needed to tackle these problems.