Leveraging A Multiple-Strain Model with Mutations in Analyzing the Spread of Covid-19
Leveraging A Multiple-Strain Model with Mutations in Analyzing the Spread of Covid-19
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DOI：
10.1109/icassp39728.2021.9414595
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发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Anirudh Sridhar;Osman Yağan;Rashad M. Eletreby;S. Levin;J. Plotkin;H. Poor
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Anirudh Sridhar;Osman Yağan;Rashad M. Eletreby;S. Levin;J. Plotkin;H. Poor
COVID-19的传播是自第二次世界大战以来影响全球人类健康和福祉的最具破坏性事件之一。关于COVID-19的一个关键科学目标是开发数学模型，帮助我们理解和预测其传播行为，并提供限制其传播的指导方针。在这篇论文中，我们讨论了我们最近关于突变的多菌株传播模型的工作如何帮助解决有关COVID-19传播的一些关键问题。我们强调了最近的报道，突变的SARS-CoV-2被认为是更传染性比原来的菌株，并讨论了将突变和进化适应（连同网络结构）在流行病模型的重要性。我们还展示了多菌株传播模型如何用于评估戴口罩在限制COVID-19传播方面的有效性。最后，我们给出了模拟结果，以证明我们的想法和多菌株模型在COVID-19背景下的实用性。
The spread of COVID-19 has been among the most devastating events affecting the health and well-being of humans worldwide since World War II. A key scientific goal concerning COVID-19 is to develop mathematical models that help us to understand and predict its spreading behavior, as well as to provide guidelines on what can be done to limit its spread. In this paper, we discuss how our recent work on a multiple-strain spreading model with mutations can help address some key questions concerning the spread of COVID-19. We highlight the recent reports on a mutation of SARS-CoV-2 that is thought to be more transmissible than the original strain and discuss the importance of incorporating mutation and evolutionary adaptations (together with the network structure) in epidemic models. We also demonstrate how the multiple-strain transmission model can be used to assess the effectiveness of mask-wearing in limiting the spread of COVID-19. Finally, we present simulation results to demonstrate our ideas and the utility of the multiple-strain model in the context of COVID-19.