Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States
Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States
复制标题
DOI：
10.1126/science.aal4369
复制
发表时间：
2017-06-30
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Houser, Trevor
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hsiang, Solomon;Kopp, Robert;Houser, Trevor
对气候变化损害的估计是制定气候政策的核心。在这里，我们开发了一个灵活的架构计算损害，集成了气候科学，计量经济学分析和过程模型。我们使用这种方法来构建空间上明确的，概率和经验得出的估计，在美国的气候变化的经济损失。在所分析的部门中，农业、犯罪、沿海风暴、能源、人类死亡率和劳动力的市场和非市场损失的综合价值在全球平均气温中呈二次增长，平均每上升1摄氏度，损失约为国内生产总值的1.2%。重要的是，风险在不同地区的分布是不平等的，导致价值向北和向西的大规模转移，加剧了经济不平等。到世纪末，在照常排放的情况下，最贫穷的三分之一县预计将遭受相当于县收入2%至20%的损失（90%的可能性）（代表性浓度途径8.5）。
Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors-agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor-increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1 degrees C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).