Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets
Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41558-018-0182-1
复制
发表时间：
2018-07-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Knobloch, F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mercure, J. -F.;Pollitt, H.;Knobloch, F.
几个主要经济体严重依赖化石燃料的生产和出口，但目前的低碳技术推广、能源效率和气候政策可能正在大幅减少全球对化石燃料的需求1-4。这一趋势与观察到的对新化石燃料企业的投资(1，2)不一致，因此可能会陷入困境。在这里，我们使用一个整合的全球经济-环境模拟模型来研究搁浅的化石燃料资产(SFFA)的宏观经济影响。我们的分析表明，SFFA的一部分将是已经在进行的技术轨迹的结果，无论是否采用新的气候政策；如果采取新的气候政策以达到《巴黎协定》2摄氏度的目标，和/或如果低成本生产国(一些欧佩克国家)在需求下降的情况下保持其生产水平(‘卖光’)，损失将被放大；SFFA的损失的规模可能相当于1-4万亿美元的贴现全球财富损失；而且存在明显的分配影响，赢家(例如，中国或欧盟等净进口国)和输家(例如，俄罗斯、美国或加拿大，它们的化石燃料行业可能几乎关闭)，尽管这两种影响在全球国内生产总值总水平上将在很大程度上相互抵消。
Several major economies rely heavily on fossil fuel production and exports, yet current low-carbon technology diffusion, energy efficiency and climate policy may be substantially reducing global demand for fossil fuels1-4. This trend is inconsistent with observed investment in new fossil fuel ventures(1,2), which could become stranded as a result. Here, we use an integrated global economy-environment simulation model to study the macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets (SFFA). Our analysis suggests that part of the SFFA would occur as a result of an already ongoing technological trajectory, irrespective of whether or not new climate policies are adopted; the loss would be amplified if new climate policies to reach the 2 degrees C target of the Paris Agreement are adopted and/or if low-cost producers (some OPEC countries) maintain their level of production ('sell out') despite declining demand; the magnitude of the loss from SFFA may amount to a discounted global wealth loss of US$1-4 trillion; and there are clear distributional impacts, with winners (for example, net importers such as China or the EU) and losers (for example, Russia, the United States or Canada, which could see their fossil fuel industries nearly shut down), although the two effects would largely offset each other at the level of aggregate global GDP.