The effects of plant pathogens on tree recruitment in the Western Amazon under a projected future climate: a dynamical systems analysis
The effects of plant pathogens on tree recruitment in the Western Amazon under a projected future climate: a dynamical systems analysis
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2745.2010.01726.x
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发表时间：
2010-11-01
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Katul, Gabriel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Thompson, Sally;Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia;Katul, Gabriel
1.亚马逊地区的气候变化预测主要集中在碳-水关系上，而气温升高和降水减少对宿主-病原体关系的影响尚未得到广泛探讨。已知这些关系会影响许多亚马逊植物物种的补充。寄主-病原体关系非常适合于气候变化影响的动态分析，因为病原体行为与温度和湿度等非生物因素之间存在直接联系。棕榈Iriartea deltoidea的幼苗由于真菌Diplodia mutila的感染而经历显著的死亡。这种寄主-病原体相互作用是通过半解析模型与田间数据相结合来检验的，说明了D. mutila繁殖率和I.三角洲总科幼苗对感染的响应死亡率.数据模型组合表明，亚马逊地区降雨和温度的预测气候变化将通过改变病原体活动和减少棕榈繁殖力来减少招聘。减少的幅度对D.穆蒂拉岛三角洲总科宿主-病原体系统，范围从10%到56%在合理的范围内.尽管还存在相当大的不确定性，但所提出的模式为未来气候模式中生态系统变化的一个方面的研究提供了蓝图。合成.这项研究说明了生态系统对气候变化的反应的潜力，可以通过简单到足以吸收到气候建模框架中的易处理的模型进行研究。确定了真菌动力学中的特定环境敏感性。植物生理压力和增强的病原体活动在未来的气候情景下的影响，突出了预测森林反应的关键问题。
1. Climate change predictions in the Amazon have largely focused on carbon-water relations, while the impacts of increased air temperature and reduced precipitation on host-pathogen relationships have not been extensively explored. These relationships are known to affect recruitment of many Amazonian plant species.2. Host-pathogen relationships are well suited to a dynamical analysis of the effects of climate change due to the direct linkages between pathogen behaviour and abiotic factors such as temperature and rainfall.3. Seedlings of the palm Iriartea deltoidea experience significant mortality due to infection by the fungus Diplodia mutila. This host-pathogen interaction was examined by combining a semi-analytical model with field data illustrating the temperature sensitivity of D. mutila reproductive rates and I. deltoidea seedling mortality in response to infection.4. The data-model combination shows that projected climatic shifts in rainfall and temperature for the Amazon region will tend to reduce recruitment by altering pathogen activity and reducing palm fecundity. The magnitude of the reduction is sensitive to the details of the epidemiology of the D. mutila-I. deltoidea host-pathogen system, and ranges from 10% to 56% under plausible scenarios.5. Although considerable uncertainty remains, the proposed model provides a blueprint for research on one aspect of ecosystem change in future climate models.6. Synthesis. The study illustrates the potential for ecosystem responses to climate change, which can be investigated through tractable models simple enough to assimilate into climate modelling frameworks. Particular environmental sensitivities in fungal dynamics are identified. The implications of combined plant physiological stress and enhanced pathogenic activity under future climate scenarios are highlighted as critical issues for projecting forest response.