Electoral Shocks - The Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World
Electoral Shocks - The Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World
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选举冲击——动荡世界中反复无常的选民
DOI：
10.1093/oso/9780198800583.001.0001
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Fieldhouse E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fieldhouse E
本书对英国选举提供了新颖的视角，重点关注英国选举中选举波动性增加的重要性，以及选举冲击在波动性增加的背景下的作用。它展示了冲击如何导致选举波动的程度，以及哪些政党从随后的波动中受益。它遵循英国选举研究书籍的传统，全面介绍了具体的选举结果——2015 年和 2017 年的大选——以及理解选举变化的更普遍的方法。我们研究了影响 2015 年和 2017 年选举的五种选举冲击：2004 年之后欧盟移民的增加，特别是来自东欧的移民； 2010年之前的全球金融危机； 2010年至2015年期间保守党和自由民主党联合政府； 2014年苏格兰独立公投；以及 2016 年欧盟公投。我们对选举冲击的关注为英国选举的波动性以及导致我们走到这一步的长期趋势提供了总体解释。它提供了一种方式来理解英国独立党 (UKIP) 的兴衰、工党 2015 年令人失望的表现及其后来的意外收获、自由民主党支持率的崩溃、苏格兰民族党 (SNP) 在 2015 年的大幅增长，以及欧盟公投和 2017 年大选后持续的动荡政治时期。它提供了一种理解英国选举选择的新方式，以及更深入的了解，以及更好地了解最近选举的结果。
This book offers a novel perspective on British elections, focusing on the importance of increasing electoral volatility in British elections, and the role of electoral shocks in the context of increasing volatility. It demonstrates how shocks have contributed to the level of electoral volatility, and also which parties have benefited from the ensuing volatility. It follows in the tradition of British Election Study books, providing a comprehensive account of specific election outcomes—the General Elections of 2015 and 2017—and a more general approach to understanding electoral change.We examine five electoral shocks that affected the elections of 2015 and 2017: the rise in EU immigration after 2004, particularly from Eastern Europe; the Global Financial Crisis prior to 2010; the coalition government of the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats between 2010 and 2015; the Scottish Independence Referendum in 2014; and the European Union Referendum in 2016.Our focus on electoral shocks offers an overarching explanation for the volatility in British elections, alongside the long-term trends that have led us to this point. It offers a way to understand the rise and fall of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), Labour’s disappointing 2015 performance and its later unexpected gains, the collapse in support for the Liberal Democrats, the dramatic gains of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in 2015, and the continuing period of tumultuous politics that has followed the EU Referendum and the General Election of 2017. It provides a new way of understanding electoral choice in Britain, and beyond, and a better understanding of the outcomes of recent elections.