Future Climates from Bias-Bootstrapped Weather Analogs: An Application to the Yangtze River Basin
Future Climates from Bias-Bootstrapped Weather Analogs: An Application to the Yangtze River Basin
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DOI：
10.1175/2010jcli3271.1
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发表时间：
2010-07
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
B. Orlowsky;O. Bothe;K. Fraedrich;F. Gerstengarbe;Xiuhua Zhu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Orlowsky;O. Bothe;K. Fraedrich;F. Gerstengarbe;Xiuhua Zhu
摘要作者描述了一个统计模拟的reservation计划，类似于“故意偏置的引导，”未来的气候预测，其唯一的约束是一个规定的线性温度趋势。它以低计算成本提供了大量的单站天气变量和其他气候观测的逐日时间序列集合。时间序列是通过将时间序列从观测到的过去映射到未来而生成的。长江流域，包括中国中部的所有气候分区，被用作试验床。每日站数据（1961-2000年）的基础上，自助方案进行了评估的交叉验证实验，确认其适用性。预测未来气候（2001- 2040年）的结果包括沿长江沿着的气候剖面、年周期和其他与天气有关的现象（例如，洪水，干旱，季风，台风）：（i）年平均气温，并与之相关，降水量增加;（ii）年循环…
Abstract The authors describe a statistical analog resampling scheme, similar to the “intentionally biased bootstrap,” for future climate projections whose only constraint is a prescribed linear temperature trend. It provides a large ensemble of day-to-day time series of single-station weather variables and other climatological observations at low computational cost. Time series are generated by mapping time sequences from the observed past into the future. The Yangtze River basin, comprising all climatological subregions of central China, is used as a test bed. Based on daily station data (1961–2000), the bootstrap scheme is assessed in a cross-validation experiment that confirms its applicability. Results obtained for the projected future climates (2001–40) include climatological profiles along the Yangtze, annual cycles, and other weather-related phenomena (e.g., floods, droughts, monsoons, typhoons): (i) the annual mean temperature and, associated with that, precipitation increase; (ii) the annual cyc...