KIC 9832227: Using Vulcan Data to Negate the 2022 Red Nova Merger Prediction
KIC 9832227: Using Vulcan Data to Negate the 2022 Red Nova Merger Prediction
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KIC 9832227：使用 Vulcan 数据否定 2022 年 Red Nova 合并预测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
N. Batalha
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Q. Socia;W. Welsh;Donald R. Short;J. Orosz;R. Angione;G. Windmiller;D. Caldwell;N. Batalha
KIC 9832227是一颗接触双星，其11小时的轨道周期变化很快。根据其周期的明显指数衰减，预测这两颗恒星将在2022年初合并，导致罕见的红新星爆发。幸运的是，KIC 9832227是在2003年被观测到的，这是NASA艾姆斯开普勒前火神计划的一部分，目的是寻找凌日系外行星。我们发现Vulcan定时测量不符合先前的指数衰减模型。这导致我们重新评估其他早期非开普勒数据集，北方天空变异性调查（NSVS）和广角搜索行星（WASP）调查。我们发现WASP的时间与之前的预测一致，但nsv的日食时间相差近一个小时。火神星和nsv星的日食时间与指数衰减模型的巨大分歧迫使我们拒绝合并假设。虽然周期变化在接触双星中很常见，但KIC 9832227周期变化的物理原因仍然无法解释；第三颗明星的情景不太可能出现。这项研究表明，火神光度计收集的数据对于扩展开普勒领域变星测量的基线非常有价值。
KIC 9832227 is a contact binary whose 11 hr orbital period is rapidly changing. Based on the apparent exponential decay of its period, the two stars were predicted to merge in early 2022 resulting in a rare red nova outburst. Fortunately KIC 9832227 was observed in 2003 as part of the NASA Ames pre-Kepler Vulcan Project to search for transiting exoplanets. We find that the Vulcan timing measurement does not agree with the previous exponential decay model. This led us to re-evaluate the other early epoch non-Kepler data sets, the Northern Sky Variability Survey (NSVS) and Wide Angle Search for Planets (WASP) survey. We find that the WASP times are in good agreement with the previous prediction, but the NSVS eclipse time differs by nearly an hour. The very large disagreement of the Vulcan and NSVS eclipse times with an exponentially decaying model forces us to reject the merger hypothesis. Although period variations are common in contact binaries, the physical cause of the period changes in KIC 9832227 remains unexplained; a third star scenario is unlikely. This study shows the data collected by the Vulcan photometer to be extremely valuable for extending the baseline for measurements of variable stars in the Kepler field.