Global burden of mortalities due to chronic exposure to ambient PM2.5 from open combustion of domestic waste
Global burden of mortalities due to chronic exposure to ambient PM2.5 from open combustion of domestic waste
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124022
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发表时间：
2016-12-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Pierce, Jeffrey R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kodros, John K.;Wiedinmyer, Christine;Pierce, Jeffrey R.
在许多国家都发现了不加控制地燃烧家庭废物的现象，这引起了对空气质量的关注;然而，对健康的影响尚未量化。我们纳入了Wiedinmyer等人（2014年环境。sci. 48 9523 - 30）排放清单纳入全球化学品运输模型，GEOS-Chem，并提供了对长期暴露于家庭废物不受控制的燃烧产生的环境PM2.5导致的成年人过早死亡率的初步估计。使用Burnett等人（2014 Environ.健康展望。122 397 - 403），我们估计，废物燃烧排放导致每年270 000（第5 - 95：213 000 - 328 000）过早成年死亡。置信区间的结果只从CRF中的不确定性，并假设相等的毒性废物燃烧PM2.5的所有其他PM2.5来源。我们承认，这一结果可能是敏感的选择化学运输模型，CRF，和排放清单。我们的中心估计值相当于2010年全球疾病负担研究中报告的暴露于环境PM2.5的成人死亡率的9%。暴露于废物燃烧产生的PM2.5会使超过50%的人口过早死亡的风险增加0.5%以上。我们认为敏感性模拟的不确定性废物燃烧排放量，去除废物燃烧排放量，和模型的分辨率。废物燃烧PM2.5中的2因子不确定性导致每年2因子减少和增加的中心估计数分别为138，000至518，000。完全消除废物燃烧每年只能避免191000例（第5 - 95：151000 - 224000）死亡（小于非线性CRF导致的过早死亡总数）。将模型分辨率从2度x 2.5度降低到4度x 5度，导致废物燃烧PM2.5的死亡率降低16%，在亚洲，将分辨率从0.5度x 0.666度降低到2度x 2.5度，导致废物燃烧PM2.5的死亡率降低21%。由于模型分辨率较低，我们对垃圾燃烧PM2.5造成的过早死亡率的全球估计可能是一个下限。
Uncontrolled combustion of domestic waste has been observed in many countries, creating concerns for air quality; however, the health implications have not yet been quantified. We incorporate the Wiedinmyer et al (2014 Environ. Sci. Technol. 48 9523-30) emissions inventory into the global chemical-transport model, GEOS-Chem, and provide a first estimate of premature adult mortalities from chronic exposure to ambient PM2.5 from uncontrolled combustion of domestic waste. Using the concentration-response functions (CRFs) of Burnett et al (2014 Environ. Health Perspect. 122 397-403), we estimate that waste-combustion emissions result in 270 000 (5th-95th: 213 000-328 000) premature adult mortalities per year. The confidence interval results only from uncertainty in the CRFs and assumes equal toxicity of waste-combustion PM2.5 to all other PM2.5 sources. We acknowledge that this result is likely sensitive to choice of chemical-transport model, CRFs, and emission inventories. Our central estimate equates to 9% of adult mortalities from exposure to ambient PM2.5 reported in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Exposure to PM2.5 from waste combustion increases the risk of premature mortality by more than 0.5% for greater than 50% of the population. We consider sensitivity simulations to uncertainty in waste-combustion emission mass, the removal of waste-combustion emissions, and model resolution. A factor-of-2 uncertainty in waste-combustion PM2.5 leads to central estimates ranging from 138 000 to 518 000 mortalities per year for factors-of-2 reductions and increases, respectively. Complete removal of waste combustion would only avoid 191 000 (5th-95th: 151 000-224 000) mortalities per year (smaller than the total contributed premature mortalities due to nonlinear CRFs). Decreasing model resolution from 2 degrees x 2.5 degrees to 4 degrees x 5 degrees results in 16% fewer mortalities attributed to waste-combustion PM2.5, and over Asia, decreasing resolution from 0.5 degrees x 0.666 degrees to 2 degrees x 2.5 degrees results in 21% fewer mortalities attributed to waste-combustion PM2.5. Owing to coarse model resolution, our global estimates of premature mortality from waste-combustion PM2.5 are likely a lower bound.