Weather Typing‐Based Flood Frequency Analysis Verified for Exceptional Historical Events of Past 500 Years Along the Meuse River
Weather Typing‐Based Flood Frequency Analysis Verified for Exceptional Historical Events of Past 500 Years Along the Meuse River
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基于天气分类的洪水频率分析验证了默兹河沿岸过去 500 年的特殊历史事件
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发表时间：
2017
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通讯作者：
Patrick Willems
中科院分区：
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作者：
J. Niel;G. Demarée;Patrick Willems
政府、政策制定者和水资源管理者受到最近社会经济发展的推动，如人口增长和城市化程度的提高，包括对洪泛区的占用，对水文结构的设计实施了非常严格的规定。这些结构需要承受重现期通常在1，250到10，000年之间的风暴。这种量化涉及系统测量的仪器数据的外推，可能由定量和/或定性历史数据和古生物数据补充。然而，外推的准确性在实践中非常不清楚。为了评估极端河流洪峰流量的外推和准确性，我们研究了默兹河沿岸过去沿着500年的历史和仪器数据。此外，我们提出了一种替代方法的极端值分布的河流洪峰流量的估计，根据海平面压力重建得出的天气类型。这种方法可以更准确地估计分布的尾部，而目前的方法低估了与极端高重现期相关的设计水平。对于拟议方法，重现期1，250年的设计洪水估计为4，800 m3 s-1，而传统方法和先前研究的设计洪水分别为3，450和3，900 m3 s-1。
Governments, policy makers, and water managers are pushed by recent socioeconomic developments such as population growth and increased urbanization inclusive of occupation of floodplains to impose very stringent regulations on the design of hydrological structures. These structures need to withstand storms with return periods typically ranging between 1,250 and 10,000 years. Such quantification involves extrapolations of systematically measured instrumental data, possibly complemented by quantitative and/or qualitative historical data and paleoflood data. The accuracy of the extrapolations is, however, highly unclear in practice. In order to evaluate extreme river peak flow extrapolation and accuracy, we studied historical and instrumental data of the past 500 years along the Meuse River. We moreover propose an alternative method for the estimation of the extreme value distribution of river peak flows, based on weather types derived by sea level pressure reconstructions. This approach results in a more accurate estimation of the tail of the distribution, where current methods are underestimating the design levels related to extreme high return periods. The design flood for a 1,250 year return period is estimated at 4,800 m3 s−1 for the proposed method, compared with 3,450 and 3,900 m3 s−1 for a traditional method and a previous study.