The Use of Probability-Distributed Initial Losses in Design Flood Estimation
The Use of Probability-Distributed Initial Losses in Design Flood Estimation
复制标题
概率分布初始损失在设计洪水估算中的应用
DOI：
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发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Mein
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ataur Rahman;E. Weinmann;R. Mein
摘要本文探讨了在选定的维多利亚集水区的洪水估计的初始损失模型所发挥的作用。流域内不同洪水事件初始损失的大变异性由拟合到观测到的初始损失数据的四参数Beta分布表示。这些随机损失用于蒙特卡洛模拟技术与随机产生的设计降雨事件，以确定派生的洪水频率曲线。已经发现，在相对频繁的洪水范围内，推导出的洪水频率曲线对所采用的损失建模方法的细节相当敏感。本文展示了在设计洪水估算中采用随机损失的潜力。
Abstract This paper examines the role played by initial loss modelling in flood estimation for selected Victorian catchments. The large variability of initial loss for different flood events in a catchment is represented by a four-parameter Beta distribution fitted to the observed initial loss data. These stochastic losses are used in a Monte Carlo simulation technique with stochastically generated design rainfall events to determine derived flood frequency curves. It has been found that, in the range of relatively frequent floods, the derived flood frequency curves are quite sensitive to details of the adopted loss modelling approach. The paper shows the potential of adopting stochastic losses in design flood estimation.