Navigating financial and supply reliability tradeoffs in regional drought management portfolios
Navigating financial and supply reliability tradeoffs in regional drought management portfolios
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在区域干旱管理组合中进行财务和供应可靠性权衡
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Characklis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Zeff;J. Kasprzyk;J. Herman;P. Reed;G. Characklis
不断上升的开发成本和对环境影响的日益关注促使许多社区探索更多样化的水资源管理战略。这些“组合”式的方法将现有的供应基础设施与其他选择（如保护措施或水转移）相结合。多样化的供水组合已被证明可以减少满足需求所需的能力和成本，同时也能更好地适应不断变化的水文条件。然而，这种额外的灵活性也可能导致意想不到的收入减少（来自节约）或成本增加（来自转移）。由此产生的财政不稳定可能对寻求实施更创新的水管理技术的公用事业产生重大阻碍。本研究旨在设计使用金融工具（如应急基金和指数保险）的投资组合，以减少收入和成本的波动，使这些策略在不牺牲财务稳定性的情况下实现更好的业绩。这一分析适用于北卡罗来纳州“研究三角”地区协调区域供应组合的发展，该地区包括四个快速发展的城市。当共享基础设施被用于实现公用事业间的转移时，每个独立公用事业的行动变得相互关联，这需要对多达五个绩效和财务目标的区域权衡进行评估。多样化的策略需要在实现可靠性目标和引入年度收入和/或成本的繁重可变性之间进行重大权衡。财务缓解工具可以减轻这种可变性的影响，从而提供一套改进的替代解决方案。这种分析为寻求导航与更灵活的组合风格管理方法相关的权衡的公用事业提供了一个通用模板。
Rising development costs and growing concerns over environmental impacts have led many communities to explore more diversified water management strategies. These “portfolio”‐style approaches integrate existing supply infrastructure with other options such as conservation measures or water transfers. Diversified water supply portfolios have been shown to reduce the capacity and costs required to meet demand, while also providing greater adaptability to changing hydrologic conditions. However, this additional flexibility can also cause unexpected reductions in revenue (from conservation) or increased costs (from transfers). The resulting financial instability can act as a substantial disincentive to utilities seeking to implement more innovative water management techniques. This study seeks to design portfolios that employ financial tools (e.g., contingency funds and index insurance) to reduce fluctuations in revenues and costs, allowing these strategies to achieve improved performance without sacrificing financial stability. This analysis is applied to the development of coordinated regional supply portfolios in the “Research Triangle” region of North Carolina, an area comprising four rapidly growing municipalities. The actions of each independent utility become interconnected when shared infrastructure is utilized to enable interutility transfers, requiring the evaluation of regional tradeoffs in up to five performance and financial objectives. Diversified strategies introduce significant tradeoffs between achieving reliability goals and introducing burdensome variability in annual revenues and/or costs. Financial mitigation tools can mitigate the impacts of this variability, allowing for an alternative suite of improved solutions. This analysis provides a general template for utilities seeking to navigate the tradeoffs associated with more flexible, portfolio‐style management approaches.