Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag?
Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag?
复制标题
人口老龄化与经济增长：从人口红利到人口拖累？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Bloom
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Rainer Kotschy;D. Bloom
IZA DP No. 16377 2023 年 8 月 人口老龄化与经济增长：从人口红利到人口拖累？* 本文探讨了与人口老龄化相关的工作年龄份额的变化可能在多大程度上减缓未来几年的经济增长。我们首先使用 1950 年至 2015 年的国家面板数据，在标准实证增长模型中分析工作年龄份额变化的经济影响。然后，我们将估计值与人口年龄结构的预测变化相比较，以预测 2020-2050 年的经济增长。我们的研究结果表明，人口老龄化将减缓世界大部分地区的经济增长。由于老年人功能能力的提高而导致的劳动力供应的扩大可以在很大程度上缓解这种人口拖累。 JEL 分类：J11、O11、O47
IZA DP No. 16377 AUGUST 2023 Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag?* This paper examines the extent to which changes in working-age shares associated with population aging might slow economic growth in upcoming years. We first analyze the economic effects of changing working-age shares in a standard empirical growth model using country panel data from 1950–2015. We then juxtapose the estimates with predicted shifts in population age structure to project economic growth in 2020–2050. Our results indicate that population aging will slow economic growth throughout much of the world. Expansions of labor supply due to improvements in functional capacity among older people can cushion much of this demographic drag. JEL Classification: J11, O11, O47