Presentation and Evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Ensemble of Extended Historical Simulations
Presentation and Evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Ensemble of Extended Historical Simulations
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2021ms002565
复制
发表时间：
2021-09-01
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Swingedouw, Didier
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bonnet, Remy;Boucher, Olivier;Swingedouw, Didier
皮埃尔-西蒙·拉普拉斯气候模拟中心利用IPSL-CM6A-LR气候模式制作了一个扩展历史模拟的集合。这个星系群（被称为IPSL-EHS）在1850-2059年间由32个成员组成，它们共享相同的外部强迫，但初始条件不同。在这项研究中，我们评估了IPSL-EHS模拟的年代际到多代际气候变率。特别是，我们研究了全球温度演变和最近的变暖趋势，以及它们与海洋热含量和海冰覆盖的一致性。该模式显示出较大的低频内部气候变率。特别地，模式中存在一个内部气候变率的准200年模态，并与大西洋经向翻转环流有关。这种变率在历史时期内将全球平均地表气温的变化调节了大约0.1K。发现这种调制与每个元件初始状态中存在的相位有关。1850-2018年期间，由于外部强迫，这种变率似乎有所下降。对海洋热含量的分析进一步揭示了对海洋分层的高估，这可能导致对近期平均变暖速率的高估。
The Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Climate Modeling Center has produced an ensemble of extended historical simulations using the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model. This ensemble (referred to as IPSL-EHS) is composed of 32 members over the 1850-2059 period that share the same external forcings but differ in their initial conditions. In this study, we assess the simulated decadal to multidecadal climate variability in the IPSL-EHS. In particular, we examine the global temperature evolution and recent warming trends, and their consistency with ocean heat content and sea ice cover. The model exhibits a large low-frequency internal climate variability. In particular, a quasi-bicentennial mode of internal climate variability is present in the model and is associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Such variability modulates the global mean surface air temperature changes over the historical period by about similar to 0.1K. This modulation is found to be linked to the phase present in the initial condition state of each member. This variability appears to decrease during the 1850-2018 period in response to external forcings. The analysis of the ocean heat content reveals furthermore an overestimation of the ocean stratification, which likely leads to an overestimation of the recent warming rate on average.