Response of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity to Increasing CO2: Results from Downscaling CMIP6 Models
Response of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity to Increasing CO2: Results from Downscaling CMIP6 Models
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-20-0367.1
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发表时间：
2021-01-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Emanuel, Kerry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Emanuel, Kerry
包括第六代耦合气候模式相互比较项目（CMIP 6）在内的全球模式采用分辨率很高但简化的大气-海洋耦合热带气旋模式缩小尺度，作为估算全球热带气旋活动对温室气体增加的反应的一种手段。与之前CMIP 5模型的缩小一样，结果显示热带气旋的频率和严重程度都有所增加，在缩小的模型中表现强劲，以应对温室气体的增加。这种增加主要集中在北方半球，尤其值得注意的是北大西洋高纬度地区的大幅度增加。在南太平洋，各种指标的变化都微不足道。尽管轨道密度的最大增加远离陆地，但全球着陆功耗却大幅增加。正如现有理论所预测的那样，快速强化的发生率随着变暖而迅速增加。降尺度气候模式的鲁棒性的措施，并比较明确模拟的热带气旋气候模式进行了讨论。
Global models comprising the sixth-generation Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are downscaled using a very high-resolution but simplified coupled atmosphere-ocean tropical cyclone model, as a means of estimating the response of global tropical cyclone activity to increasing greenhouse gases. As with a previous downscaling of CMIP5 models, the results show an increase in both the frequency and severity of tropical cyclones, robust across the models downscaled, in response to increasing greenhouse gases. The increase is strongly weighted to the Northern Hemisphere, and especially noteworthy is a large increase in the higher latitudes of the North Atlantic. Changes are insignificant in the South Pacific across metrics. Although the largest increases in track density are far from land, substantial increases in global landfalling power dissipation are indicated. The incidence of rapid intensification increases rapidly with warming, as predicted by existing theory. Measures of robustness across downscaled climate models are presented, and comparisons to tropical cyclones explicitly simulated in climate models are discussed.