CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today's Earth System Models
CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today's Earth System Models
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DOI：
10.1016/j.endeavour.2016.07.002
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发表时间：
2016-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
0.6
通讯作者：
Jones, Philip D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anderson, Thomas R.;Hawkins, Ed;Jones, Philip D.
根据最先进的地球系统模型(ESM)的总体平均结果，根据未来温室气体排放情况，预计21世纪期间气候变暖将在1.0至3.7摄氏度之间。考虑到气候系统的复杂性，这些预测到底有多可靠？气候研究的早期历史提供了对回答这个问题所需的理解和科学的洞察。我们考察了Svante Arrhenius(18591927)和Guy Stewart Callendar(1898年-1964年)提出的行星能量收支的数学量化，并构建了后者的经验近似，我们证明该近似在20世纪期间成功地回溯地预测了全球变暖。这一近似值随后被用来计算21世纪期间因大气温室气体增加而产生的变暖，预测气温上升的下限是由一系列环境影响管理产生的结果(如政府间气候变化专门委员会的最新评估所述)。这一结果可作如下解释。气候系统在概念上是复杂的，但其核心是辐射传输的物理规律。这一基本的或“核心”物理在数学上计算相对简单，Callendar的计算就是例证，这导致了对基线变暖的定量预测。ESM不仅包括物理核心，还包括气候反馈，这些反馈在规模方面给预测带来了不确定性，但没有迹象：积极的(气候变暖放大)。因此，ESMS对本世纪末全球变暖的预测从根本上是可信的：基于众所周知的辐射传输物理学的定量稳健的基线变暖，以及气候反馈导致的额外变暖。因此，这些预测提供了一个令人信服的理由，即由于二氧化碳和其他温室气体持续排放到大气中，全球气候将继续经历显着变暖。
Climate warming during the course of the twenty-first century is projected to be between 1.0 and 3.7 degrees C depending on future greenhouse gas emissions, based on the ensemble-mean results of state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs). Just how reliable are these projections, given the complexity of the climate system? The early history of climate research provides insight into the understanding and science needed to answer this question. We examine the mathematical quantifications of planetary energy budget developed by Svante Arrhenius (18591927) and Guy Stewart Callendar (1898-1964) and construct an empirical approximation of the latter, which we show to be successful at retrospectively predicting global warming over the course of the twentieth century. This approximation is then used to calculate warming in response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases during the twenty-first century, projecting a temperature increase at the lower bound of results generated by an ensemble of ESMs (as presented in the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). This result can be interpreted as follows. The climate system is conceptually complex but has at its heart the physical laws of radiative transfer. This basic, or "core" physics is relatively straightforward to compute mathematically, as exemplified by Callendar's calculations, leading to quantitatively robust projections of baseline warming. The ESMs include not only the physical core but also climate feedbacks that introduce uncertainty into the projections in terms of magnitude, but not sign: positive (amplification of warming). As such, the projections of end-of century global warming by ESMs are fundamentally trustworthy: quantitatively robust baseline warming based on the well-understood physics of radiative transfer, with extra warming due to climate feedbacks. These projections thus provide a compelling case that global climate will continue to undergo significant warming in response to ongoing emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.