Missing Growth from Creative Destruction
Missing Growth from Creative Destruction
复制标题
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3082868
复制
发表时间：
2017-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Aghion;A. Bergeaud;Timo Boppart;Peter J. Klenow;Huiyu Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Aghion;A. Bergeaud;Timo Boppart;Peter J. Klenow;Huiyu Li
对于现存的产品，统计机构通常会用现存的产品来计算通货膨胀。如果被创造性摧毁的产品比幸存的产品更有进步，这就低估了增长。如果是这样，那么幸存产品的市场份额应该会系统性地萎缩。我们利用进入和退出机构来代表创造性破坏，估计了1983年至2013年美国非农企业人口普查数据中缺失的增长。我们发现，缺失的增长(i)相当于每年约0.5个百分点；（ii）主要来自酒店和餐馆，而不是制造业；而且（iii） 2005年之后并没有加速多少，因此无法解释自那以来经济增长的急剧放缓。（jel e23, e31, l14, l15, o30, o41）
For exiting products, statistical agencies often impute inflation from surviving products. This understates growth if creatively-destroyed products improve more than surviving ones. If so, then the market share of surviving products should systematically shrink. Using entering and exiting establishments to proxy for creative destruction, we estimate missing growth in US Census data on non-farm businesses from 1983 to 2013. We find missing growth (i) equaled about one-half a percentage point per year; (ii) arose mostly from hotels and restaurants rather than manufacturing; and (iii) did not accelerate much after 2005, and therefore does not explain the sharp slowdown in growth since then. (JEL E23, E31, L14, L15, O30, O41)