The appeal of vague financial forecasts
The appeal of vague financial forecasts
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DOI：
10.1016/j.obhdp.2010.10.005
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发表时间：
2011-03-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Omer, Thomas C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Du, Ning;Budescu, David V.;Omer, Thomas C.
先前的研究结果表明，管理者经常选择范围来传达未来收益的不确定性。我们分析了11年的盈利预测，发现盈利不确定性较高的公司更有可能选择区间估计。本文研究了投资者对预测精度的态度，并认为投资者对预测的评价可以用一个连续的非补偿性两阶段过程来解释。首先，投资者根据一致性原则来确定一个点或一个范围估计是否更适合于特定的领域。然后，他们寻求最精确的合理范围，以最大限度地提高信息量。从三个实验的结果表明，偏好（IM）的精度是非单调的-它的峰值低水平的不精确性和减少时，范围变得更宽，是一致的参与者的愿望一致和信息的估计，并支持索赔，投资者青睐的预测是准确的，保证了可用的信息，但不是更精确。(C)2010年爱思唯尔公司All rights reserved.
Prior findings suggest managers often choose ranges to communicate uncertainty in future earnings. We analyzed earnings forecasts over 11 years and find higher earnings uncertainty firms are more likely to choose range estimates. We study investors' attitudes to forecast precision and argue investors' evaluations of forecasts can be explained by a sequential non-compensatory two-stage process First, investors determine whether a point or a range estimate is more appropriate for a particular domain based on the congnience principle. Then, they seek the most precise reasonable range to maximize informativeness. Results from three experiments indicate the preference for (im)precision is non-monotonic - it peaks for low levels of imprecision and diminishes when the range gets wider, and is consistent with participants' desire for congruent and informative estimates, and supports the claim that investors favor forecasts that are as precise as warranted by the information available, but not more precise. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.