Construction of CPIX Data for Forecasting and Modelling in South Africa
Construction of CPIX Data for Forecasting and Modelling in South Africa
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南非预测和建模 CPIX 数据的构建
DOI：
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Muellbauer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Aron;J. Muellbauer
南非在2000年采用了通货膨胀目标制，以不包括抵押贷款利息成本(CPIX)的消费者价格指数(CPI)为目标，针对“大都市和城市地区”。然而，对于其他国家声誉良好的政府统计机构发布的南非统计局编制CPI和CPIX的方法，没有明确的技术说明。这篇论文有两个目的。首先，我们的目标是通过解释消费物价指数方法(据我们理解)来提高透明度，并鼓励出版官方技术手册。我们还提出了CPI建设的各种技术问题。其次，我们采用一致的方法，使用每月价格指数、适当的权重，并在重新基数时正确地联系起来，生成1970年以来CPIX(“大都市区”)的估计值。虽然CPIX(“大都市和城市地区”)指标从2000年开始只与货币政策制定和工资合同有关，从1997年开始只按月公布，但南非储备银行(SARB)、国库和其他机构的预测和建模工作需要更长的时间序列。我们的指标在某些年份与南非统计局发布的数据不同(1994年才按月发布)。
South Africa adopted inflation targeting in 2000, targeting the consumer price index (CPI) excluding mortgage interest cost (or CPIX), for “metropolitan and urban areas”. Yet there is no clear technical account of the methodology of construction of CPI and CPIX by Statistics South Africa, as published by reputable government statistical agencies in other countries. This paper has two goals. First, we aim to enhance transparency by explaining the CPI methodology (as we understand it), and to encourage publication of an official technical handbook. We also raise various technical issues concerning CPI construction. Second, we produce estimates of CPIX “metropolitan areas”) back to 1970, on a consistent methodology, using monthly price indices, the appropriate weights, and linking correctly when rebasing. While the CPIX (“metropolitan and urban areas”) measure only became relevant to monetary policy setting and wage contracts from 2000, and is published monthly only from 1997, a far longer time series is required for the forecasting and modelling exercises of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), National Treasury and others. Our measure differs in some years from that published by Statistics South Africa (published monthly only back to 1994).