Employment, Hours, and Earnings in the Depression: an Analysis of Eightmanufacturing Industries
Employment, Hours, and Earnings in the Depression: an Analysis of Eightmanufacturing Industries
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大萧条时期的就业、工作时间和收入：八个制造业的分析
DOI：
10.3386/w1642
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发表时间：
1985
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
B. Bernanke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Bernanke
本文采用月度行业数据研究大萧条时期的劳动力市场。基本的分析框架是，如Lucas（1970）所述，雇主不仅可以通过改变工人的数量，还可以通过改变每周工作的长度来改变总劳动投入。这一框架似乎与20世纪30年代特别相关，在这一时期，就业和工作时间都大幅波动。将总需求视为外生的，结果表明，基于这一框架的计量经济学模型，结合一些额外的因素（特别是，工人工资对生活成本的永久性而非暂时性变化的调整，以及新政立法的影响），可以很好地解释关键时间序列的行为。特别是，经验模型能够解释在高失业率时期实际工资增长的难题。
This paper employs monthly, industry-level data in a study of Depression-era labor markets. The underlying analytical framework is one in which, as in Lucas (1970), employers can vary total labor input not only by changing the number of workers but also by varying the length of the work-week. This framework appears to be particularly relevant to the 1930s, a period in which both employment and hours of work fluctuated sharply. With aggregate demand treated as exogenous, it is shown that an econometric model based on this framework, in conjunction with some additional elements (notably, the adjustment of workers' pay to permanent but not transitory variations in the cost of living, and the effects of New Deal legislation) can provide a good explanation of the behavior of the keytime series. In particular, the empirical model is able to explain the puzzle of increasing real wages during a period of high unemployment.