Modelling pathogen transmission: the interrelationship between local and global approaches
Modelling pathogen transmission: the interrelationship between local and global approaches
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2002.2213
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发表时间：
2003-01-07
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Bowers, RG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Turner, J;Begon, M;Bowers, RG
我们描述了两个空间（元胞自动机）主机病原体模型与对比类型的传输，在生物学上现实的传输机制是完全基于“本地”的相互作用。这两个模型，固定接触面积（FCA）和固定接触数（FCN），可以被视为当地的“等价物”的常用的全球密度（和频率）相关的模型。将它们的输出相互比较，并与这些全球术语产生的模式进行比较。在FCN模型中，未被占用的细胞被绕过，但在FCA模型中，这些细胞阻碍病原体传播，延长了流行期，并在病原体持续存在时降低了感染率。至关重要的是，广义线性模型表明，当感染者均匀分布且N大致恒定（如准平衡时）时，全球传播项betaSI和β 'SI/N同样擅长描述FCA和FCN模型中的传播。然而，当N变化时，在FCA和FCN模型中描述传输时，全局频率依赖项β 'SI/N优于密度依赖项β SI。我们的方法可以更广泛地用于比较不同的局部接触结构，并选择最合适的全球传输项。
We describe two spatial (cellular automaton) host-pathogen models with contrasting types of transmission, where the biologically realistic transmission mechanisms are based entirely on 'local' interactions. The two models, fixed contact area (FCA) and fixed contact number (FCN), may be viewed as local 'equivalents' of commonly used global density- (and frequency-) dependent models. Their outputs are compared with each other and with the patterns generated by these global terms. In the FCN model, unoccupied cells are bypassed, but in the FCA model these impede pathogen spread, extending the period of the epidemic and reducing the prevalence of infection when the pathogen persists. Crucially, generalized linear modelling reveals that the global transmission terms betaSI and beta'SI/N are equally good at describing transmission in both the FCA and FCN models when infected individuals are homogeneously distributed and N is approximately constant, as at the quasi-equilibrium. However, when N varies, the global frequency-dependent term beta'SI/N is better than the density-dependent one, betaSI, at describing transmission in both the FCA and FCN models. Our approach may be used more generally to compare different local contact structures and select the most appropriate global transmission term.