Climate Variability and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Hanoi, Viet Nam, During 2008 to 2015
Climate Variability and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Hanoi, Viet Nam, During 2008 to 2015
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DOI：
10.1177/1010539518790143
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发表时间：
2018-09-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Hoang Van Minh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Tran Thi Tuyet-Hanh;Nguyen Nhat Cam;Hoang Van Minh
登革热/登革出血热（DF/DHF）在越南和全世界一直是一项重要的公共卫生挑战。本研究于2016-2017年实施，利用回顾性二手数据探讨2008 - 2015年DF/DHF月度病例与气候变量之间的关系。报告了48175例登革出血热/登革出血热病例，11月病例数最多。月DF/DHF病例与月平均蒸发量（r = 0.236, P < 0.05）、月相对湿度（r = -0.358, P < 0.05）、月总日照时数（r = 0.389, P < 0.05）呈显著相关。在滞后模型中，DF/DHF月病例数与月平均降雨量和气温没有直接相关。研究建议河内市卫生工作人员从5月开始在流行初期监测登革出血热病例，并及时采取预防和干预措施，避免疾病在接下来的几个月中传播。在气候变化和气候变率的影响下，更大规模、更长期的研究和调整其他潜在影响因素可以更好地描述相关性、建模/预测和建立疾病预警系统，这是重要的。
Dengue fever/dengue hemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) has been an important public health challenge in Viet Nam and worldwide. This study was implemented in 2016-2017 using retrospective secondary data to explore associations between monthly DF/DHF cases and climate variables during 2008 to 2015. There were 48175 DF/DHF cases reported, and the highest number of cases occurred in November. There were significant correlations between monthly DF/DHF cases with monthly mean of evaporation (r = 0.236, P < .05), monthly relative humidity (r = -0.358, P < .05), and monthly total hours of sunshine (r = 0.389, P < .05). The results showed significant correlation in lag models but did not find direct correlations between monthly DF/DHF cases and monthly average rainfall and temperature. The study recommended that health staff in Hanoi should monitor DF/DHF cases at the beginning of epidemic period, starting from May, and apply timely prevention and intervention measures to avoid the spreading of the disease in the following months. A larger scale study for a longer period of time and adjusting for other potential influencing factors could better describe the correlations, modelling/projection, and developing an early warning system for the disease, which is important under the impacts of climate change and climate variability.