Public investment, public debt, and population aging under the golden rule of public finance
Public investment, public debt, and population aging under the golden rule of public finance
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.01.011
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发表时间：
2019-06-01
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Tamai, Toshiki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kamiguchi, Akira;Tamai, Toshiki
本文建立了一个债务融资公共投资的代际交叠模型。该模型假设政府服从公共财政的黄金法则，家庭是亚里-布兰查德意义上的可持续生活。结果表明，增长最大化税率与福利最大化税率并不等价，而且两者都低于公共资本的产出弹性。本文还推导出了使均衡增长率和社会福利最大化的公共债务占GDP比例的阈值，即，实证研究表明，公共债务占GDP的比例与经济增长率之间存在倒U型关系。此外，本文表明，税率和公共债务占GDP的比例都与寿命呈正相关。这一结果为英国、德国、日本等国在人口老龄化的背景下公债占GDP的比例上升提供了可能的解释。
This paper develops an overlapping generations model with debt-financed public investment. The model assumes that government is subject to the golden rule of public finance and that house-holds are finitely lived in the sense of Yaari-Blanchard. It is shown that the growth-maximizing tax rate is not equivalent to the welfare-maximizing one; in addition, both tax rates are lower than the output elasticity of public capital. This paper also derives the threshold value of public debt to GDP ratio that maximizes the equilibrium growth rate and social welfare, i.e., the inverted-U relation between the public debt to GDP ratio and the economic growth rate suggested by empirical studies. Furthermore, this paper shows that both tax rates and the public debt to GDP ratio positively depend on longevity. This result provides a possible explanation for the rising tendency of the public debt to GDP ratio under population aging in countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan.