Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario
Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario
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DOI：
10.1155/2014/753790
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发表时间：
2014-09
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Ji-Woo Lee;S. Ham;Song‐You Hong;K. Yoshimura;M. Joh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ji-Woo Lee;S. Ham;Song‐You Hong;K. Yoshimura;M. Joh
本研究评估未来的地表径流变化，由于气候变化在韩国使用区域气候模式（RCM），即全球/区域综合模式系统（GRIMs），区域模式程序（RMP）。RMP是由未来气候情景，即政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第四次评估报告（AR 4）的A1 B所推动的。RMP令人满意地再现了观测到的季节平均值和地表径流的变化，为当前的气候模拟。与季风降水相关的径流分布被RMP充分捕获。在未来（2040-2070年）的模拟中，气温的上升趋势对径流年内变化有显著的影响。夏季径流变率增大，未来气候极端事件发生的可能性增强。这项研究表明，未来的气候预测，包括韩国地表径流及其变化，可以充分解决的RMP试验台。此外，这项研究反映了全球变暖影响当地的水文循环，通过改变主要的水收支组成部分。本研究指出，在区域气候研究中，径流的重要性不应被忽视，需要更详细地介绍淡水循环，以封闭区域气候模型中的水文循环。
This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM), namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs), Regional Model Program (RMP). The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070) simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.