Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach
Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach
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DOI：
10.1093/icesjms/fst147
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Irigoien, Xabier
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chust, Guillem;Castellani, Claudia;Irigoien, Xabier
在过去十年中，基于北大西洋东部连续浮游生物记录仪调查的分析发现了与海洋变暖有关的海洋向极迁移的最引人注目的例子之一。本研究的主要目的是验证浮游动物物种（哲水蚤finmarchicus，C。glacialis，C. helgolandicus，C. hyperboreus），其分布变化已记录在北大西洋，并评估有多少这种变化是由海洋变暖引发的，使用广义加性模型。为此，将观测数据的人口重心与一系列模拟实验的人口重心进行了比较：（i）仅使用气候因子的模式（i）。e.生态位为基础的模型），以模拟物种栖息地的适宜性，（ii）一个模型，只使用时间和空间方面重建人口分布，和（iii）一个模型，使用这两个因素相结合，使用一个子集的观察作为独立的数据集进行验证。我们的研究结果表明，只有C。finmarchicus有一个一致的向极移动，由海洋变暖引发，估计在北大西洋每十年8.1公里（东北部每十年16.5公里），这是大大低于以前的作品在组合水平，并限于东北大西洋。相反，C. helgolandicus正在向各个方向扩张，尽管它在北海的北方分布界限已经向北移动。Calanus glacialis和C. hyperboreus，主要在西北大西洋的人口的地理中心，表现出轻微的南移，可能是对拉布拉多电流向南渗透的冷水。我们的方法，高模型精度的支持下，显示其权力在检测物种纬度变化，并确定其原因，因为发生观察数据的趋势是受采样频率，随着时间的推移逐渐集中到低纬度的影响。
In the last decade, the analysis based on Continuous Plankton Recorder survey in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean detected one of the most striking examples of marine poleward migration related to sea warming. The main objective of this study is to verify the poleward shift of zooplankton species (Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis, C. helgolandicus, C. hyperboreus) for which distributional changes have been recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean and to assess how much of this shift was triggered by sea warming, using Generalized Additive Models. To this end, the population gravity centre of observed data was compared with that of a series of simulation experiments: (i) a model using only climate factors (i. e. niche-based model) to simulate species habitat suitability, (ii) a model using only temporal and spatial terms to reconstruct the population distribution, and (iii) a model using both factors combined, using a subset of observations as independent dataset for validation. Our findings show that only C. finmarchicus had a consistent poleward shift, triggered by sea warming, estimated in 8.1 km per decade in the North Atlantic (16.5 per decade for the northeast), which is substantially lower than previous works at the assemblage level and restricted to the Northeast Atlantic. On the contrary, C. helgolandicus is expanding in all directions, although its northern distribution limit in the North Sea has shifted northward. Calanus glacialis and C. hyperboreus, which have the geographic centres of populations mainly in the NW Atlantic, showed a slight southward shift, probably responding to cool water penetrating southward in the Labrador Current. Our approach, supported by high model accuracy, shows its power in detecting species latitudinal shifts and identifying its causes, since the trend of occurrence observed data is influenced by the sampling frequency, which has progressively concentrated to lower latitudes with time.