Wartime Violence, Risk/Time Preferences, and Post-conflict Sociopolitical Participation: Evidence from Northwestern Pakistan
Wartime Violence, Risk/Time Preferences, and Post-conflict Sociopolitical Participation: Evidence from Northwestern Pakistan
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战时暴力、风险/时间偏好和冲突后社会政治参与：来自巴基斯坦西北部的证据
DOI：
10.1007/978-981-19-4899-2_4
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
and Kazuhiro Obayashi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Takashi Kurosaki;Yuichi Kubota;and Kazuhiro Obayashi
战争经历如何影响受害者的风险和时间偏好以及他们参与社会政治的倾向？尽管最近的研究表明，国内冲突改变了个人对风险和时间的偏好，但对于个人暴露于冲突相关暴力对他们对风险和时间偏好的影响，还没有达成共识。此外，这些偏好是否以及如何与个人的社会政治参与相关，尚未得到探讨。本章以巴基斯坦西北部的部落地区为重点，考察了个人在战争时期的受害行为、对风险和时间的偏好以及冲突后社会政治参与之间的三方关系。我们对新调查数据的实证分析表明，尽管国内冲突的受害者不一定具有当前偏见，但他们在冲突后社会中表现出更高的风险厌恶倾向。战时受害使个人不愿加入政治社会组织，如政党、工会、宗教团体和支尔格大会。然而，受害经历似乎在一定程度上增加了个人属于这些社会政治组织的机会，因为它对风险厌恶有积极影响。相反，在冲突后的社会中，当前的偏见与他们的社会进步负相关。
How do wartime experiences affect victims’ risk and time preferences and their propensities for sociopolitical participation? Although recent studies suggest that civil conflict changes individuals’ preferences for risk and time, there is no consensus on the effects of individuals’ exposure to conflict-related violence on their preferences for risk and time. Furthermore, whether and how such preferences are related to individuals’ sociopolitical participation is unexplored. Focusing on the tribal areas in northwestern Pakistan, this chapter examines the tripartite relationship between individuals’ wartime victimization, preferences for risk and time, and sociopolitical participation in a post-conflict context. Our empirical analyses of novel survey data reveal that although victims of civil conflict do not necessarily have present bias, they display a higher propensity for risk aversion in the post-conflict society. Wartime victimization discourages individuals from belonging to sociopolitical organizations, such as a political party, trade union, religious group, and Jirga. However, the victimization experience appears to partly increase the chance of individuals belonging to these sociopolitical organizations because of its positive effect on risk aversion. In contrast, present bias is negatively related to their social progress in a post-conflict society.