Priors and Posteriors in Bayesian Timing of Divergence Analyses: The Age of Butterflies Revisited
Priors and Posteriors in Bayesian Timing of Divergence Analyses: The Age of Butterflies Revisited
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DOI：
10.1093/sysbio/syz002
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发表时间：
2019-09-01
影响因子：
6.5
通讯作者：
Heikkilae, Maria
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chazot, Nicolas;Wahlberg, Niklas;Heikkilae, Maria
对发散时间的稳健估计的需要对于下游分析是必不可少的，然而评估这种稳健性仍然很少。我们产生了一个时间校准属级的蝴蝶（蝶），包括994个分类群，多达10个基因片段和前所未有的一组12个化石和10个寄主植物节点的校准点。我们比较了边缘先验和后验分布，以评估前者对后者的相对重要性。这种方法揭示了一个强大的影响力的先验知识的根年龄，但大多数校准节点后验分布从边缘先验转移，表明在分子数据集的重要信息。使用一个非常保守的方法，我们估计蝴蝶的起源在107.6马，大约相当于最新的早白垩世，与可信区间范围从89.5马（中晚白垩世）至129.5马（中早白垩世）。此外，我们测试了改变化石校准先验，树先验，不同的校准集和不同的采样分数的影响，但我们的估计仍然稳健这些替代假设。有994属，这棵树提供了一个全面的来源，二次校准蝴蝶的研究。
The need for robust estimates of times of divergence is essential for downstream analyses, yet assessing this robustness is still rare. We generated a time-calibrated genus-level phylogeny of butterflies (Papilionoidea), including 994 taxa, up to 10 gene fragments and an unprecedented set of 12 fossils and 10 host-plant node calibration points. We compared marginal priors and posterior distributions to assess the relative importance of the former on the latter. This approach revealed a strong influence of the set of priors on the root age but for most calibrated nodes posterior distributions shifted from the marginal prior, indicating significant information in the molecular data set. Using a very conservative approach we estimated an origin of butterflies at 107.6 Ma, approximately equivalent to the latest Early Cretaceous, with a credibility interval ranging from 89.5 Ma (mid Late Cretaceous) to 129.5 Ma (mid Early Cretaceous). In addition, we tested the effects of changing fossil calibration priors, tree prior, different sets of calibrations and different sampling fractions but our estimate remained robust to these alternative assumptions. With 994 genera, this tree provides a comprehensive source of secondary calibrations for studies on butterflies.