Effects of Global Warming on the Average Wind Speed Field in Central Japan
Effects of Global Warming on the Average Wind Speed Field in Central Japan
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发表时间：
2012
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通讯作者：
M. Rahim;J. Yoshino;Y. Doi;T. Yasuda
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作者：
M. Rahim;J. Yoshino;Y. Doi;T. Yasuda
作者根据几个可用的数据库，比较了 1961 年至 2099 年日本中部海拔 30-100 m 高度（AGL）的年平均风速分布。使用三个现有数据库在时间和空间上对风速场进行统计插值：2001-2002 年日本中部 333 米分辨率本地风场数据库（GWA333）、1957-2001 年全球再分析 ECMWF（ERA40）以及 SRES A1B 情景下 2000-2100 年全球多模式数据库（CMIP3）。插值数据通过日本气象厅进行的现有地面观测进行了验证，我们确认插值与观测结果吻合良好。结果表明，在30 m AGL下，统计插值法评估的2099年域平均风速比GWA333评估的2001年风速高出约0.48 m/s。沿海和山区30 m AGL风速从2001年的8 m/s增加到2099年的10 m/s。地面风速的逐步增加可能要到21世纪初才能完成。得出的结论是，如果全球变暖按照IPCC A1B情景发展，预计21世纪初日本中部的地面风速，即风能资源将逐渐增加。关键词：平均风速、风能、全球变暖。
The authors compare distributions of annual mean wind speed during 1961–2099 at altitudes of 30–100 m above ground level (AGL) in Central Japan based on several available databases. Wind speed fields are statistically interpolated in time and space using three existing databases: the 333-m resolution local wind field database in Central Japan during 2001–2002 (GWA333), the global reanalysis ECMWF during 1957–2001 (ERA40), and the global multi-model database during 2000–2100 (CMIP3) under the SRES A1B scenario. The interpolated data is validated by available surface observation conducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency, and we confirm that the interpolation shows good agreement with the observations. Results show that domain-averaged wind speeds in 2099 evaluated by the statistical interpolation exceed the wind speeds in 2001 evaluated by GWA333 by about 0.48 m/s at 30 m AGL. Over the coastal and mountainous regions, the wind speed at 30 m AGL increase from 8 m/s in 2001 to 10 m/s in 2099. The gradual increase of the surface wind speed might be completed until the early 21st century. It is concluded that if global warming advances according to the IPCC A1B scenario, the surface wind speed, namely, the wind energy resource in Central Japan is expected to increase gradually during the early 21st century. Keywords: average wind speed, wind energy, global warming.