USE OF EXPERT KNOWLEDGE ELICITATION TO ESTIMATE PARAMETERS IN HEALTH ECONOMIC DECISION MODELS
USE OF EXPERT KNOWLEDGE ELICITATION TO ESTIMATE PARAMETERS IN HEALTH ECONOMIC DECISION MODELS
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DOI：
10.1017/s0266462314000427
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发表时间：
2014-10-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Blakely, Tony
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hadorn, David;Kvizhinadze, Giorgi;Blakely, Tony
目的：本研究的目的是确定流行和方法的专家知识启发（EKE）指定输入参数的卫生经济决策模型（HEDM.Methods）：我们创建了两个样本使用国家卫生系统经济评价数据库：（1）100随机选择的HEDM研究，以确定流行的EKE和（2）60研究使用正式的EKE过程，以确定所使用的方法。57（57%）的随机样本包括至少一个EKE衍生参数。其中，六个（10%）使用了正式的专家流程。在我们的第二个样本60项研究中，有34项研究（57%）描述了这个过程的至少一个方面（例如，启发方法）具有合理的清晰度。在大约三分之二的研究中，外部专家重新估计了参数;其余的研究证实或修改了作者提供的初始估计值，或者方法不清楚。大多数elicitations只获得点估计，虽然一些研究要求专家估计的参数values.Conclusions范围：使用EKE参数估计是常见的HEDMs，虽然有改进的空间，在所使用的方法。
Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and methods of expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) for specifying input parameters in health economic decision models (HEDM).Methods: We created two samples using the National Health System Economic Evaluations Database: (1) 100 randomly selected HEDM studies to determine prevalence of EKE and (2) sixty studies using a formal EKE process to determine methods used.Results: Fifty-seven (57 percent) of the random sample included at least one EKE-derived parameter. Of these, six (10 percent) used a formal expert process. Thirty-four studies from our second sample of sixty studies (57 percent) described at least one aspect of the process (e.g., elicitation method) with reasonable clarity. In approximately two-thirds of studies the external experts estimated parameters de novo; the remainder confirmed or modified initial estimates provided by authors, or the method was unclear. The majority of elicitations obtained point estimates only, although a few studies asked experts to estimate ranges of parameter values.Conclusions: The use of EKE for parameter estimation is common in HEDMs, although there is room for improvement in the methods used.