Explaining the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 through mobility and enterprise statistics: Evidence from the first wave in Japan.
Explaining the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 through mobility and enterprise statistics: Evidence from the first wave in Japan.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0247186
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Hatayama M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kajitani Y;Hatayama M
这项研究使用流动性统计结合商业普查数据，针对冠状病毒病-2019年(新冠肺炎)感染率最高的日本八个县，研究流动性减少对有效繁殖数量(即一个感染者导致的平均继发病例数量)的影响。流动性统计是通过汇编智能手机位置数据创建的一个相对较新的数据源；如果与流行病学调查结果和其他经济数据集相结合，它们可以有效地用于了解流行病。根据日本第一波感染的数据，我们发现，针对酒店业的削减略高于对一般商业活动的限制。具体地说，我们发现，为了遏制大流行(即将所有日子的有效繁殖数量减少到一次或更少)，每周的流动性需要减少20%-35%，具体取决于地区。一个较小的目标，80%的天数有一次或更少观察到的传播，可以通过每周减少6%-30%的移动性来实现。如果忽略传播的其他潜在原因，这些就是结果；为了更全面地了解情况，需要更仔细的观察、扩大的数据集和先进的统计建模。
This study uses mobility statistics combined with business census data for the eight Japanese prefectures with the highest coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) infection rates to study the effect of mobility reductions on the effective reproduction number (i.e., the average number of secondary cases caused by one infected person). Mobility statistics are a relatively new data source created by compiling smartphone location data; they can be effectively used for understanding pandemics if integrated with epidemiological findings and other economic data sets. Based on data for the first wave of infections in Japan, we found that reductions targeting the hospitality industry were slightly more effective than restrictions on general business activities. Specifically, we found that to hold back the pandemic (that is, to reduce the effective reproduction number to one or less for all days), a 20%–35% reduction in weekly mobility is required, depending on the region. A lesser goal, 80% of days with one or less observed transmission, can be achieved with a 6%–30% reduction in weekly mobility. These are the results if other potential causes of spread are ignored; for a fuller picture, more careful observations, expanded data sets, and advanced statistical modeling are needed.