Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy
Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph17144964
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发表时间：
2020-07-01
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Agodi, Antonella
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Maugeri, Andrea;Barchitta, Martina;Agodi, Antonella
意大利是欧洲第一个实施旅行限制、检疫和接触预防措施的国家，以应对新型冠状病毒(SARS-CoV-2)在其所有地区的流行传播。虽然这种努力仍在进行中，但有关SARS-CoV-2传播性和病例查明的不确定性使评估限制措施的有效性变得困难。在这里，我们使用了易感暴露传染病康复死亡(SEIRD)模型来评估SARS-CoV-2传播动力学，研究对象是2月24日至4月13日在西西里岛(意大利)重症监护病房(ICU)报告的患者数量和死亡人数。总体而言，我们获得了估计数据和报告数据之间的良好匹配，在3月10日封锁之前，有一小部分未报告的SARS-CoV-2病例(18.4%；95%CI=0-34.0%)。有趣的是，我们估计，在第一套限制措施后，社区的传播率下降了32%(95%CI=23-42%)，在3月23日采取的限制措施之后，下降了80%(95%CI=70-89%)。因此，我们的估计在考虑到未报告的数据的情况下，在限制之前描绘了SARS-CoV2疫情的特征。此外，我们的研究结果表明，采取控制措施后，传播率降低了。然而，我们无法评估这一减少是否可能部分归因于其他未测量的因素，因此需要进一步的研究和更准确的数据来了解限制措施在多大程度上有助于疫情控制。
Italy was the first country in Europe which imposed control measures of travel restrictions, quarantine and contact precautions to tackle the epidemic spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in all its regions. While such efforts are still ongoing, uncertainties regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and ascertainment of cases make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of restrictions. Here, we employed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model to assess SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, working on the number of reported patients in intensive care unit (ICU) and deaths in Sicily (Italy), from 24 February to 13 April. Overall, we obtained a good fit between estimated and reported data, with a fraction of unreported SARS-CoV-2 cases (18.4%; 95%CI = 0-34.0%) before 10 March lockdown. Interestingly, we estimated that transmission rate in the community was reduced by 32% (95%CI = 23-42%) after the first set of restrictions, and by 80% (95%CI = 70-89%) after those adopted on 23 March. Thus, our estimates delineated the characteristics of SARS-CoV2 epidemic before restrictions taking into account unreported data. Moreover, our findings suggested that transmission rates were reduced after the adoption of control measures. However, we cannot evaluate whether part of this reduction might be attributable to other unmeasured factors, and hence further research and more accurate data are needed to understand the extent to which restrictions contributed to the epidemic control.