Social Contagion of Violence
Social Contagion of Violence
复制标题
暴力的社会蔓延
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Garth Davies
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Fagan;Deanna L. Wilkinson;Garth Davies
自1968年以来，纽约市的暴力和其他犯罪一直遵循着一种反复流行的模式。有三个连续的周期，其特点是杀人案和袭击案急剧上升，然后同样急剧下降到接近前一个起点的水平。最近的一次流行发生在1985- 1996年，是三次流行中上升和下降幅度最大的一次。对当前流行病的流行解释既不能解释下降的上升和下降，也不能解释这些流行病的重复模式。在本文中，我们使用公共卫生数据来确定与三次流行病中最近一次的杀人和非致命伤害暴力的周期性上升和下降相关的因素。这一时期的凶杀案集中在15-24岁的少数族裔男性中，而所有年龄段的女性受害率保持稳定。从1985年到1995年，人际暴力的上升和下降都是由涉枪杀人和非致命性涉枪袭击造成的；在此期间，其他方式造成的故意伤害也保持稳定或下降。接下来，我们使用层次线性回归模型，具有一组丰富的时变协变量和时空自相关控制，以确定凶杀案的上升和下降是否可以通过相邻社区的扩散过程来解释。我们估计了一个社区在前一年控制周围社区的杀人或袭击率的杀人和袭击的概率，发现枪支暴力随着时间的推移在社区之间扩散。流行的暴力模式对非裔美国人造成了不成比例的影响，使他们成为枪支暴力的受害者，包括杀人和非致命的枪支袭击。在社会控制因极端贫困和集中的种族隔离而受到损害的社区，传播最为强烈。移民家庭集中在社区是抑制暴力流行的一个保护性因素。然后，我们使用社会传染理论，将暴力在社区间的传染与可能推动暴力传播和扩散的社会互动的个人数据联系起来。对暴力事件的社会背景和人际动态的分析揭示了人际纠纷中的街头互动如何将社会网络内部和跨社会网络的个人联系在一起，以争夺被枪支存在扭曲的地位。携带、展示和使用武器的决定是基于对威胁和危险的感知，这是由枪支的存在和与不采取行动相关的潜在耻辱所决定的。这些事件发生在酒吧、街角、毒品市场等多种环境中，强化了人们对风险的认识，以及对致命暴力威胁或现实的预期。
Since 1968, violence and other crimes in New York City have followed a pattern of recurring epidemics. There have been three consecutive and contiguous cycles characterized by sharp increases in homicides and assaults to an elevated rate followed by equally steep declines to levels near the previous starting point. The most recent epidemic, from 1985-96, had the sharpest rise and steepest decline of the three epidemics. Popular explanations of the current epidemic fail to account for both the rise and fall of the decline, or for the repetitive pattern of these epidemics. In this article, we use public health data to identify factors associated with the cyclical rise and fall of homicides and non-lethal injury violence in this most recent of the three epidemics. Homicides in this period were concentrated among minority males, ages 15-24, while victimization rates for females of all ages remained stable. Gun homicides and non-lethal gun assaults accounted for all the increase and decline in interpersonal violence from 1985-95; intentional injuries caused by other means also were stable or declining over this period. Next, we use hierarchical linear regression models, with a rich set of time-varying covariates and controls for both temporal and spatial autocorrelation, to identify whether the rise and fall of homicide are explained by processes of diffusion across adjacent neighborhoods. We estimate the probabilities of homicides and assaults in a neighborhood controlling for rates of homicide or assault in the surrounding neighborhoods in the preceding year, and find that gun violence diffuses across neighborhoods over time. Epidemic patterns of violence disproportionately affected African Americans as victims of gun violence, both homicides and non-lethal gun assaults. Diffusion was strongest in neighborhoods where social control was compromised by extreme poverty and concentrated racial segregation. Concentrations of immigrant households in neighborhoods were a protective factor in suppressing the violence epidemic. We then use social contagion theories to link contagion of violence across neighborhoods to individual data on social interactions that may animate the transmission and diffusion of violence. Analyses of the social contexts and interpersonal dynamics of violent events reveals how street interactions in interpersonal disputes link individuals within and across social networks in a competition for status that is skewed by the presence of firearms. Decisions to carry, show and use weapons are based on perceptions of threat and danger, which are shaped by the presence of firearms and the potential stigma associated with non-action. These events occur across multiple contexts - bars, streetcorners, drug markets - to reinforce perceptions of risk and expectations of the threat or reality of lethal violence.
青少年吸烟和饮酒：它们是“流行病”吗？
DOI：
10.15288/jsa.1991.52.110
发表时间：
1991
期刊：
Journal of studies on alcohol
影响因子：
--
作者：
Rowe,DC;Rodgers,JL
通讯作者：
Rodgers,JL
青少年性行为的社会传染模型：解释种族差异。
DOI：
10.1080/19485565.1994.9988856
发表时间：
1994
期刊：
Social biology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Rowe,DC;Rodgers,JL
通讯作者：
Rodgers,JL