Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France
Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France
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DOI：
10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109761
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
Piazza, Francesco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fanelli, Duccio;Piazza, Francesco
本文分析了2020年1月22日至3月15日中国、意大利和法国新冠肺炎疫情的时间动态。对简单日滞后图的初步分析表明，疫情传播具有一定的普遍性，表明可以有意义地使用简单平均场模型来收集疫情传播的定量图像，特别是确诊感染个体的高峰高度和时间。在一个简单的易感-感染-康复-死亡模型中对相同数据的分析表明，不论在哪个国家，描述康复率的动力学参数似乎都是相同的，而感染率和死亡率似乎变化更大。该模型将意大利的峰值定在2020年3月21日左右，感染人数峰值约为2.6万人（不包括康复和死亡人数），疫情结束时死亡人数约为1.8万人。由于确诊病例据信占最终感染人数的10%至20%，因此意大利的COVID-19表观死亡率在4%至8%之间，而中国的表观死亡率似乎要低得多，在1%至3%之间。根据我们的计算，我们估计2500个通风装置应该是意大利卫生当局在其战略规划中考虑的峰值需求的公平数字。最后，对意大利严厉遏制措施对疫情影响的模拟表明，感染率的降低确实会导致疫情高峰的熄灭。但是，我们也看到，需要迅速大幅度降低感染率，才能看到流行高峰和死亡率的明显下降。这似乎只有通过全体人民一致的、有纪律的、尽管是痛苦的努力才能实现。(C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
In this note we analyze the temporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in China, Italy and France in the time window 22/01 - 15/03/2020. A first analysis of simple day-lag maps points to some universality in the epidemic spreading, suggesting that simple mean-field models can be meaningfully used to gather a quantitative picture of the epidemic spreading, and notably the height and time of the peak of confirmed infected individuals. The analysis of the same data within a simple susceptible-infected-recovered-deaths model indicates that the kinetic parameter that describes the rate of recovery seems to be the same, irrespective of the country, while the infection and death rates appear to be more variable. The model places the peak in Italy around March 21st 2020, with a peak number of infected individuals of about 260 00 (not including recovered and dead) and a number of deaths at the end of the epidemics of about 18,000. Since the confirmed cases are believed to be between 10 and 20% of the real number of individuals who eventually get infected, the apparent mortality rate of COVID-19 falls between 4% and 8% in Italy, while it appears substantially lower, between 1% and 3% in China. Based on our calculations, we estimate that 2500 ventilation units should represent a fair figure for the peak requirement to be considered by health authorities in Italy for their strategic planning. Finally, a simulation of the effects of drastic containment measures on the outbreak in Italy indicates that a reduction of the infection rate indeed causes a quench of the epidemic peak. However, it is also seen that the infection rate needs to be cut down drastically and quickly to observe an appreciable decrease of the epidemic peak and mortality rate. This appears only possible through a concerted and disciplined, albeit painful, effort of the population as a whole. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.