Epidemiology of transmissible diseases after elimination
Epidemiology of transmissible diseases after elimination
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DOI：
10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a010145
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发表时间：
2000-06-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Farrington, CP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
De Serres, G;Gay, NJ;Farrington, CP
消除一种传染病通常被理解为在一个人口中完全没有病例。这种情况只有在整个人口因自然疾病或接种疫苗而免疫的情况下才会发生。然而，这种代价高昂且不切实际的情景并不是确保消除艾滋病的必要条件。更恰当的定义是一种情况，在这种情况下，不能发生持续的传播，输入疾病的二次传播将在没有干预的情况下自然结束。作者描述了在本土传播被消除后，由输入感染引起的暴发的规模和持续时间。它们表明，可以通过评估输入病例的比例和暴发规模的分布来监测消除进程的状况；加拿大、美国和英国的麻疹提供了一个很好的例子：这些标准的相关性。通过监测这些暴发的规模和持续时间，可以监测消除疫情的持续情况。
Elimination of an infectious disease is often understood to mean the total absence of cases in a population. This situation can occur only if the entire population is immune as a result of either natural disease or vaccination. However, this costly and unrealistic scenario is not necessary to ensure elimination. more appropriately defined as a situation in which sustained transmission cannot occur and secondary spread from importations of disease will end naturally, without intervention. The authors describe the size and duration of outbreaks caused by imported infections after indigenous transmission has been eliminated. They show that the status of the elimination process can be monitored by assessing the proportion of cases imported and the distribution of outbreak sizes; Measles in Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom provides a good example of the:relevance of these criteria. Surveillance of the size and duration of these outbreaks enables maintenance of elimination to be monitored.