Mobile phone data highlights the role of mass gatherings in the spreading of cholera outbreaks
Mobile phone data highlights the role of mass gatherings in the spreading of cholera outbreaks
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1522305113
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发表时间：
2016-06-07
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Bertuzzo, Enrico
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Finger, Flavio;Genolet, Tina;Bertuzzo, Enrico
人类流动的时空演变和相关的人口密度波动是传染病暴发动态的关键驱动因素。这些因素在大规模集会的情况下尤其重要，因为大规模集会可能成为疾病传播和扩散的热点。然而，对这些动态的了解通常受到缺乏准确数据的限制，特别是在发展中国家。移动的电话数据提供了一种新的一阶信息源，可以在空间和时间上以高分辨率跟踪迁移率通量的演变。在这里，我们分析了一个数据集的移动的电话记录类似于15万用户在塞内加尔提取人的流动性流量，并直接将它们纳入一个空间上明确的，动态的流行病学框架。我们的模型还考虑了降雨等疾病传播的其他驱动因素，并应用于2005年塞内加尔霍乱疫情，该疫情共报告了3万多例病例。我们的研究结果强调了在疫情爆发初期发生的大规模集会对疫情进程的重大影响。这种影响无法用描述人类流动性的经典静态方法来解释。模型结果还表明，在传播热点集中努力控制疾病，可能对疫情的大规模发展产生重要影响。
The spatiotemporal evolution of human mobility and the related fluctuations of population density are known to be key drivers of the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks. These factors are particularly relevant in the case of mass gatherings, which may act as hotspots of disease transmission and spread. Understanding these dynamics, however, is usually limited by the lack of accurate data, especially in developing countries. Mobile phone call data provide a new, first-order source of information that allows the tracking of the evolution of mobility fluxes with high resolution in space and time. Here, we analyze a dataset of mobile phone records of similar to 150,000 users in Senegal to extract human mobility fluxes and directly incorporate them into a spatially explicit, dynamic epidemiological framework. Our model, which also takes into account other drivers of disease transmission such as rainfall, is applied to the 2005 cholera outbreak in Senegal, which totaled more than 30,000 reported cases. Our findings highlight the major influence that a mass gathering, which took place during the initial phase of the outbreak, had on the course of the epidemic. Such an effect could not be explained by classic, static approaches describing human mobility. Model results also show how concentrated efforts toward disease control in a transmission hotspot could have an important effect on the large-scale progression of an outbreak.